Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ilves (76%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ilves face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Tammelan Stadion to face Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 6W 2D 2L at Tammelan Stadion — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 0W 1D 9L from 10 games (0.10 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ilves. A 1.50 PPG lead over Mariehamn (1.60 vs 0.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Ilves, 2 for Mariehamn and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 64% versus Mariehamn 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 71% | Mariehamn 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.48 xG and Mariehamn 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.141 / defence 0.914 | Mariehamn attack 0.714 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.118. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Ilves games / 40 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 76% | Draw 16% | Mariehamn 9%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Mariehamn 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (76%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.21 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 50% | Mariehamn 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 76% | Draw 16% | Mariehamn 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 48% | xG Ilves 2.48 / Mariehamn 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.141 / def 0.914 | Mariehamn attack 0.714 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Ilves (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Mariehamn xG
48%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Mariehamn kick off?
Ilves vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Ilves 2 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Ilves vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Mariehamn part of?
Ilves vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 76% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ilves and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Record (9 meetings): Ilves 4W | Draws 3 | Mariehamn 2W.
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ilves's attack at 1.14x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.71x) against Ilves's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
76%
1.32
16%
6.42
9%
11.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.21
0.73
Mariehamn xG
1.32
76%
Home win
6.42
16%
Draw
11.39
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
8%
11.98
Win to Nil
36%
2.74
1%
136.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ilves and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Ilves and 0.73 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ilves's recent record stands at 21W 10D 14L from 45 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 24L across 45 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 13W 5D 4L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 3W 6D 13L across 22 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ilves are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.96 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ilves have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 21W 10D 14L in their last 45 games (1.62 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 8W 13D 24L in their last 45 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Mariehamn away?
Ilves's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.00 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ilves
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 64%, Mariehamn 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Ilves and 54% for Mariehamn. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Mariehamn in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ilves's games and 54% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Ilves's matches and 54% of Mariehamn's.
Do Ilves and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Mariehamn 2-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.48 xG and Mariehamn 0.73 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.14 / defence 0.91 against Mariehamn attack 0.71 / defence 1.47, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 76% | Draw 16% | Mariehamn 9%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 76%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 71%, Mariehamn 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.