Ilves 2-0 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kooteepee at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Kooteepee fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Ilves welcome Kooteepee to Ratinan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 28 May 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.20 xG and Kooteepee 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.108 / defence 1.325 | Kooteepee attack 0.918 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 0.932 / away 1.527. Data: 4 Ilves games / 4 Kooteepee games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ilves 23% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 52%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Kooteepee 1.92. Kooteepee hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kooteepee at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kooteepee offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 May 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 23% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Ilves 1.20 / Kooteepee 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.108 / def 1.325 | Kooteepee attack 0.918 / def 1.160 | league avg home 0.932 / away 1.527 • Poisson stance: Kooteepee (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Kooteepee xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Kooteepee kick off?
Ilves vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 28 May 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Ilves 2 - 0 Kooteepee.
Where is Ilves vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Kooteepee part of?
Ilves vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 23% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Kooteepee the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ilves and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Kooteepee?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and Kooteepee in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.11) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kooteepee Win
23%
4.27
25%
4.02
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.06
1.86
Kooteepee xG
4.27
23%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
16%
6.41
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
4%
27.40
16%
6.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.7 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Ilves and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ilves and 1.86 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Pre-Season
Kooteepee
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Kooteepee runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ilves have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when Ilves won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Ilves
2
Draws
0
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Kooteepee?
From 7 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Kooteepee have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 2 July 2025, when Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Kooteepee?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Kooteepee 2-0 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.20 xG and Kooteepee 1.86 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kooteepee landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.11 / defence 1.32 against Kooteepee attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 23% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 52%, with Kooteepee to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.