Haka 3-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Haka welcome Mariehamn to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 June 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 4W 2D 4L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tehtaan kenttä. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tehtaan kenttä this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haka 2.00 PPG, Mariehamn 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (27 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Haka 33% | Mariehamn 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 37% | Mariehamn 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.30 xG and Mariehamn 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.911 / defence 0.940 | Mariehamn attack 0.656 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.310. Data: 32 Haka games / 31 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 47% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 22%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Mariehamn 4.55. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 20% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jun 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 47% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Haka 1.30 / Mariehamn 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.911 / def 0.940 | Mariehamn attack 0.656 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Haka (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Mariehamn xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Haka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 June 2022 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Haka 3 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is Haka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Mariehamn part of?
Haka vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 47% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Haka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in?
Haka (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haka's attack rating (0.91) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
47%
2.12
31%
3.23
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Haka xG
Total xG
2.11
0.81
Mariehamn xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
6%
16.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Haka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Haka and 0.81 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 27 games, going 10W 5D 12L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.11 PPG from 27 outings (9W 3D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.30 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (5W 2D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.04 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Haka have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 10W 5D 12L in their last 27 games (1.30 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.14 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Haka or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
3
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 36%, Mariehamn 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Haka) and 43% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Haka keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Haka have failed to score in 36% of games; Mariehamn in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Haka's recent matches and 36% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Haka's recent games and 43% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Haka edge out Mariehamn 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Mariehamn 3-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 10, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.30 xG and Mariehamn 0.81 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.91 / defence 0.94 against Mariehamn attack 0.66 / defence 1.11, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 47% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 22%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 37%, Mariehamn 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.30 PPG, Mariehamn 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.