Haka 2-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round - 5 as Haka welcome Mariehamn to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 3W 3D 4L at Tehtaan kenttä — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tehtaan kenttä this season.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haka 1.70 PPG, Mariehamn 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Haka 35% | Mariehamn 35%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 38% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.18 xG and Mariehamn 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.996 / defence 1.073 | Mariehamn attack 0.876 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 0.962 / away 1.080. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Haka games / 22 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 40% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 31%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Mariehamn 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 30% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 40% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Haka 1.18 / Mariehamn 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.996 / def 1.073 | Mariehamn attack 0.876 / def 1.236 | league avg home 0.962 / away 1.080 • Poisson stance: Haka (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Mariehamn xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Haka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Haka 2 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Haka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Mariehamn part of?
Haka vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 40% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Haka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in?
Haka (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haka's attack rating (1.00) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
40%
2.52
29%
3.45
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Haka xG
Total xG
2.20
1.01
Mariehamn xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
10%
10.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Haka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Haka and 1.01 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 5D 12L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 1.15 PPG from 26 outings (9W 3D 14L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.23 PPG, Mariehamn on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 3W 4D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 1.31 points per game from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.08 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 9W 5D 12L in their last 26 games (1.23 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 14L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Mariehamn away?
Mariehamn's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.00 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Haka or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Haka have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
3
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 38%, Mariehamn 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Haka) and 46% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Haka keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Haka have failed to score in 38% of games; Mariehamn in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Haka's recent matches and 38% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Haka's recent games and 46% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Mariehamn 2-0 at Tehtaan kenttä, Relegation Round - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.18 xG and Mariehamn 1.01 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Haka beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.00 / defence 1.07 against Mariehamn attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 40% | Draw 29% | Mariehamn 31%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 38%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mariehamn's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.23 PPG, Mariehamn 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.