Haka 1-2 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Haka take on Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Haka welcome Mariehamn to Tehtaan kenttä. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 1W 2D 4L at Tehtaan kenttä — 0.71 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Mariehamn have posted 2W 1D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.88 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Haka 0.80 PPG, Mariehamn 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Mariehamn in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 71% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Haka 35% | Mariehamn 24%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 41% | Mariehamn 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 0.83 xG and Mariehamn 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.712 / defence 1.087 | Mariehamn attack 0.695 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 0.901 / away 1.132. Haka's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Haka games / 18 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 32% | Draw 34% | Mariehamn 33%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Mariehamn 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Haka's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 24% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 32%. Form rates corroborate: Haka 43% | Mariehamn 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 32% | Draw 34% | Mariehamn 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG Haka 0.83 / Mariehamn 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.712 / def 1.087 | Mariehamn attack 0.695 / def 1.299 | league avg home 0.901 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Mariehamn xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Mariehamn kick off?
Haka vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 September 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Haka 1 - 2 Mariehamn.
Where is Haka vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Mariehamn part of?
Haka vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 32% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Haka and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Haka's attack rating (0.71) and Mariehamn's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.92
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Haka xG
Total xG
1.69
0.85
Mariehamn xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.08
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
43%
2.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
15%
6.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 15.8 | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.2%.
How many goals are Haka and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Haka and 0.85 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 3D 10L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mariehamn sit at 0.65 PPG from 17 outings (3W 2D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 0.88 PPG, Mariehamn on 0.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 1W 2D 4L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Mariehamn have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.53 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 24%.
Last 17 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 12L in their last 17 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Mariehamn away?
Haka's home record (0.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.71 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Haka
3
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, Mariehamn have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Mariehamn?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 43%, Mariehamn 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Haka) and 43% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 43% of games; Mariehamn in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Haka's recent matches and 29% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Haka's recent games and 43% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out Haka 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Haka 1-2 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 0.83 xG and Mariehamn 0.85 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Mariehamn outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.71 / defence 1.09 against Mariehamn attack 0.69 / defence 1.30, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 32% | Draw 34% | Mariehamn 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 41%, Mariehamn 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 0.88 PPG, Mariehamn 0.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.