Haka 1-1 Honka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Honka at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs Honka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Honka travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 June 2021, 16:30 UTC.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Haka, 1 for Honka and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jun 2021, ended 1–2 with Honka winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.03 xG and Honka 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.883 / defence 1.328 | Honka attack 0.819 / defence 1.340. League average goals — home 0.874 / away 1.325. Honka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.340 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Haka games / 10 Honka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 27% | Draw 26% | Honka 46%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Honka 2.17. Honka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Honka as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Honka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Honka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Jun 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 27% | Draw 26% | Honka 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Haka 1.03 / Honka 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.883 / def 1.328 | Honka attack 0.819 / def 1.340 | league avg home 0.874 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Honka (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Honka xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Honka kick off?
Haka vs Honka kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 30 June 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Honka?
Haka 1 - 1 Honka.
Where is Haka vs Honka being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Honka part of?
Haka vs Honka is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Honka?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 27% chance of winning, Honka a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Honka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Honka?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Haka and Honka will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Honka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Honka?
Record (1 meetings): Haka 0W | Draws 0 | Honka 1W.
What form are Haka and Honka in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Haka's attack rating (0.88) and Honka's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Honka's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Honka Win
27%
3.69
26%
3.78
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Haka xG
Total xG
2.48
1.44
Honka xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
6%
15.60
17%
6.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.1 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Honka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Haka and Honka expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Haka and 1.44 for Honka, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Honka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Pre-Season
Honka
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and Honka runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Haka's record when hosting Honka specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Haka
3
Draws
2
Honka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Honka?
From 8 meetings on record, Haka have won 3, Honka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Honka last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2023, when Honka 0-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Honka?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Honka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Haka and Honka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka and Honka finished level at 1-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.03 xG and Honka 1.44 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.88 / defence 1.33 against Honka attack 0.82 / defence 1.34, drawn from 8/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 27% | Draw 26% | Honka 46%, with Honka to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.