Haka 0-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Haka vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Haka host AC Oulu at Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 20 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Haka have posted 1W 2D 3L at Tehtaan kenttä — 0.83 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
AC Oulu — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's away record: 1W 0D 6L from 7 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.43 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Haka at 0.90 PPG versus AC Oulu's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
AC Oulu in-play tendencies (15 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 40% versus AC Oulu 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Haka 40% | AC Oulu 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.07 xG and AC Oulu 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.778 / defence 1.131 | AC Oulu attack 0.811 / defence 1.513. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 1.065. Haka's attack strength of 0.778 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.513 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Haka games / 16 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 37% | Draw 30% | AC Oulu 32%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | AC Oulu 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Haka as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Haka 50% | AC Oulu 57%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 37% | Draw 30% | AC Oulu 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Haka 1.07 / AC Oulu 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.778 / def 1.131 | AC Oulu attack 0.811 / def 1.513 | league avg home 0.912 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Haka (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Haka xG
Expected Goals
0.98
AC Oulu xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs AC Oulu kick off?
Haka vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs AC Oulu?
Haka 0 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is Haka vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs AC Oulu part of?
Haka vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 37% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Haka and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and AC Oulu in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Haka's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against AC Oulu's defensive record (1.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, AC Oulu's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
37%
2.68
30%
3.29
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Haka xG
Total xG
2.05
0.98
AC Oulu xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Haka and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Haka and 0.98 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Haka have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 4W 3D 8L record — L-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu's form line: 4W 1D 10L from 15 games, 0.87 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.00 PPG, AC Oulu on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Haka have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
On the road, AC Oulu have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Haka are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 0.93 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 4W 1D 10L in their last 15 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or AC Oulu away?
Haka's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.83 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Haka and AC Oulu runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AC Oulu go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2022, when AC Oulu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Haka's record when hosting AC Oulu specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Haka 0-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AC Oulu see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 50%, AC Oulu 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Haka) and 50% (AC Oulu).
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 33% of games; AC Oulu in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Haka's recent matches and 50% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Haka vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Haka's recent games and 50% of AC Oulu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and AC Oulu tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat Haka 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Haka 0-1 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 20, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.07 xG and AC Oulu 0.98 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Haka fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.78 / defence 1.13 against AC Oulu attack 0.81 / defence 1.51, drawn from 15/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 37% | Draw 30% | AC Oulu 32%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 40%, AC Oulu 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AC Oulu's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.00 PPG, AC Oulu 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.