Gnistan 0-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mariehamn at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gnistan vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Relegation Round as Gnistan welcome Mariehamn to Mustapekka Areena. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 25 October 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Mariehamn have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gnistan 1.25 xG and Mariehamn 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gnistan attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Mariehamn attack 1.025 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.279. Data: 0 Gnistan games / 44 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gnistan 31% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 43%. Fair-value odds: Gnistan 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Mariehamn 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mariehamn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gnistan vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round | Venue: Mustapekka Areena • Kick-off: Wednesday 25 Oct 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gnistan 31% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Gnistan 1.25 / Mariehamn 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Gnistan attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Mariehamn attack 1.025 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Gnistan xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Mariehamn xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gnistan vs Mariehamn kick off?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 25 October 2023 at Mustapekka Areena.
What was the final score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Gnistan 0 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Gnistan vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Mustapekka Areena.
What competition is Gnistan vs Mariehamn part of?
Gnistan vs Mariehamn is a Relegation Round fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Gnistan a 31% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Gnistan and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Gnistan vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gnistan and Mariehamn in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Mariehamn away split: 1.10 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Gnistan's attack at 0.85x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus Gnistan's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
31%
3.19
26%
3.87
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Gnistan xG
Total xG
2.76
1.51
Mariehamn xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
22%
4.52
29%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Gnistan and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Gnistan and 1.51 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Gnistan vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gnistan
Pre-Season
Mariehamn
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gnistan and Mariehamn runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gnistan have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Mariehamn won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gnistan's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Gnistan
2
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
From 9 meetings on record, Gnistan have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gnistan and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Gnistan 4-2 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Gnistan and Mariehamn?
Gnistan have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gnistan home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Gnistan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gnistan and Mariehamn finished level at 0-0 at Mustapekka Areena, Relegation Round, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gnistan 1.25 xG and Mariehamn 1.51 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gnistan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mariehamn landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gnistan attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Mariehamn attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 0/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gnistan 31% | Draw 26% | Mariehamn 43%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.