FF Jaro 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this FF Jaro vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FF Jaro and KuPS meet at Pietarsaaren in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 April 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FF Jaro have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FF Jaro's home record at Pietarsaaren: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Pietarsaaren this season.
KuPS (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, KuPS have posted 6W 4D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for FF Jaro, 2.30 for KuPS — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FF Jaro, 2 for KuPS and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FF Jaro — key trading statistics (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FF Jaro 62% versus KuPS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 62% | KuPS 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 0.94 xG and KuPS 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.826 / defence 1.031 | KuPS attack 1.196 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.310. Data: 24 FF Jaro games / 24 KuPS games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 22% | Draw 25% | KuPS 53%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | KuPS 1.89. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: FF Jaro 80% | KuPS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Pietarsaaren • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Apr 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 22% | Draw 25% | KuPS 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG FF Jaro 0.94 / KuPS 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.826 / def 1.031 | KuPS attack 1.196 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: KuPS (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.61
KuPS xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs KuPS kick off?
FF Jaro vs KuPS kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 April 2026 at Pietarsaaren.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs KuPS?
FF Jaro 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is FF Jaro vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Pietarsaaren.
What competition is FF Jaro vs KuPS part of?
FF Jaro vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 22% chance of winning, KuPS a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FF Jaro and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and KuPS?
Record (2 meetings): FF Jaro 0W | Draws 0 | KuPS 2W.
What form are FF Jaro and KuPS in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.83x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.20x) against FF Jaro's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
22%
4.56
25%
4.02
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
2.55
1.61
KuPS xG
4.56
22%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
4%
22.95
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.6 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.61 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FF Jaro's recent record stands at 11W 4D 14L from 29 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 6D 5L across 29 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours KuPS by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FF Jaro heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FF Jaro have managed 4W 3D 8L from 15 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 8W 5D 2L across 15 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FF Jaro are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 2.03 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FF Jaro have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
KuPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and KuPS in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 11W 4D 14L in their last 29 games (1.28 PPG), while KuPS have gone 18W 6D 5L in their last 29 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 1.00 PPG; KuPS away: 1.93 PPG.
Have FF Jaro or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
FF Jaro have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, KuPS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 20 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 20 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FF Jaro have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
FF Jaro
1
Draws
3
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and KuPS?
From 4 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 0, KuPS have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2026, when KuPS 3-0 FF Jaro.
Who has won more matches between FF Jaro and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FF Jaro see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
KuPS see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FF Jaro 67%, KuPS 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (FF Jaro) and 47% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS in 40%; FF Jaro have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FF Jaro's games and 47% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FF Jaro vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FF Jaro's matches and 47% of KuPS's.
FF Jaro and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pietarsaaren, Regular Season - 3, as FF Jaro and KuPS drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 0.94 xG and KuPS 1.61 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against KuPS attack 1.20 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 22% | Draw 25% | KuPS 53%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 62%, KuPS 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FF Jaro (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.