FF Jaro 0-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FF Jaro at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this FF Jaro vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Project Liv Arena plays host to FF Jaro versus AC Oulu in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 22 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FF Jaro have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Project Liv Arena, FF Jaro have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FF Jaro are significantly better at Project Liv Arena than their overall form suggests.
AC Oulu (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for FF Jaro, 0.90 for AC Oulu — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FF Jaro 2W, AC Oulu 2W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 May 2026, ended 1–2 with AC Oulu winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
FF Jaro half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
AC Oulu half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FF Jaro 60% versus AC Oulu 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 64% | AC Oulu 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.59 xG and AC Oulu 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.965 / defence 1.176 | AC Oulu attack 0.904 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.153. Data: 42 FF Jaro games / 42 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 46% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 29%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | AC Oulu 3.45. FF Jaro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FF Jaro at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FF Jaro if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FF Jaro 70% | AC Oulu 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 46% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG FF Jaro 1.59 / AC Oulu 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.965 / def 1.176 | AC Oulu attack 0.904 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: FF Jaro (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.23
AC Oulu xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs AC Oulu kick off?
FF Jaro vs AC Oulu kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
FF Jaro 0 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is FF Jaro vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs AC Oulu part of?
FF Jaro vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 46% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FF Jaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FF Jaro and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and AC Oulu?
Record (4 meetings): FF Jaro 2W | Draws 0 | AC Oulu 2W.
What form are FF Jaro and AC Oulu in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FF Jaro's attack at 0.96x the league average against AC Oulu's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.90x) against FF Jaro's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FF Jaro Win
46%
2.19
25%
4.01
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
2.82
1.23
AC Oulu xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
6%
16.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.23 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FF Jaro's recent record stands at 13W 10D 24L from 47 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu, meanwhile, have gone 17W 6D 24L across 47 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for FF Jaro against 1.21 for AC Oulu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FF Jaro have managed 6W 7D 11L from 24 games — 1.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Oulu's away record stands at 7W 3D 14L across 24 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FF Jaro are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.26 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 13W 10D 24L in their last 47 games (1.04 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 17W 6D 24L in their last 47 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or AC Oulu away?
FF Jaro's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 1.04 PPG; AC Oulu away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
AC Oulu go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FF Jaro have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FF Jaro
0
Draws
3
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and AC Oulu?
From 5 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 2, AC Oulu have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when FF Jaro 0-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between FF Jaro and AC Oulu?
AC Oulu have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FF Jaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FF Jaro 71%, AC Oulu 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FF Jaro and 58% for AC Oulu. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play AC Oulu?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FF Jaro's games and 58% of AC Oulu's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FF Jaro vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FF Jaro's matches and 58% of AC Oulu's.
Do FF Jaro and AC Oulu tend to score early?
FF Jaro have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat FF Jaro 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat FF Jaro 0-1 at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.59 xG and AC Oulu 1.23 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FF Jaro fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against AC Oulu attack 0.90 / defence 1.12, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 46% | Draw 25% | AC Oulu 29%, with FF Jaro to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 64%, AC Oulu 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AC Oulu's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.04 PPG, AC Oulu 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. FF Jaro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.