AC Oulu 0-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AC Oulu host Haka at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, AC Oulu have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Raatin stadion this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Haka — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AC Oulu at 1.40 PPG versus Haka's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
AC Oulu trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Haka trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 45% versus Haka 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 40% | Haka 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.12 xG and Haka 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.885 / defence 1.104 | Haka attack 0.729 / defence 1.327. League average goals — home 0.951 / away 1.113. Haka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.327 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 AC Oulu games / 20 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 41% | Draw 30% | Haka 29%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Haka 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 40% | Haka 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 41% | Draw 30% | Haka 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG AC Oulu 1.12 / Haka 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.885 / def 1.104 | Haka attack 0.729 / def 1.327 | league avg home 0.951 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Haka xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Haka kick off?
AC Oulu vs Haka kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
AC Oulu 0 - 1 Haka.
Where is AC Oulu vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Haka part of?
AC Oulu vs Haka is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 41% chance of winning, Haka a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both AC Oulu and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Haka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and Haka in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Haka (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.89x the league average against Haka's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
41%
2.47
30%
3.28
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.01
0.90
Haka xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.51
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for AC Oulu and 0.90 for Haka, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 3D 12L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Haka sit at 0.90 PPG from 20 outings (5W 3D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AC Oulu on 0.90 PPG, Haka on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AC Oulu's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.11 points per game from 9 outings (3W 1D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 0.90 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Haka in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Haka have gone 5W 3D 12L in their last 20 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Haka away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.22 PPG; Haka away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Oulu go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2022, when AC Oulu won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AC Oulu's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Haka 0-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 44%, Haka 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (AC Oulu) and 56% (Haka).
On the defensive side: Haka in 33%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 33% of games; Haka in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 33% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of AC Oulu's recent games and 56% of Haka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Haka tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Haka in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat AC Oulu 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat AC Oulu 0-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.12 xG and Haka 0.90 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AC Oulu fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.89 / defence 1.10 against Haka attack 0.73 / defence 1.33, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 41% | Draw 30% | Haka 29%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Haka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 40%, Haka 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Haka's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AC Oulu 0.90 PPG, Haka 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Haka win broke the near-deadlock. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.