Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tottenham face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tottenham host Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tottenham — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Arsenal have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Tottenham register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Arsenal in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Arsenal have the better historical record — 7 wins from 9 previous contests against 1 for Tottenham.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 1–4 with Arsenal winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Arsenal have won 7 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 59% versus Arsenal 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 64% | Arsenal 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.01 xG and Arsenal 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 0.895 / defence 1.159 | Arsenal attack 1.163 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.274. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Tottenham games / 65 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 5.26 | Draw 3.45 | Arsenal 1.96. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 80% | Arsenal 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Tottenham 1.01 / Arsenal 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 0.895 / def 1.159 | Arsenal attack 1.163 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Arsenal xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Arsenal kick off?
Tottenham vs Arsenal kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Tottenham 1 - 4 Arsenal.
Where is Tottenham vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Arsenal part of?
Tottenham vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 19% chance of winning, Arsenal a 51% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Tottenham and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Record (9 meetings): Tottenham 1W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 7W.
What form are Tottenham and Arsenal in?
Tottenham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Arsenal (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tottenham's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
19%
5.14
29%
3.41
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.73
1.72
Arsenal xG
5.14
19%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
3%
28.63
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.7 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.72 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 18W 13D 33L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal's form line: 36W 21D 7L from 64 games, 2.02 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tottenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 0.97 PPG from 32 outings (8W 7D 17L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 15W 13D 4L from 32 away games — 1.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.86 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 18W 13D 33L in their last 64 games (1.05 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 36W 21D 7L in their last 64 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 0.97 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Arsenal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arsenal go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2022, when Tottenham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tottenham
1
Draws
8
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 1, Arsenal have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 72%, Arsenal 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Tottenham) and 41% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Arsenal?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Tottenham's games and 56% of Arsenal's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 69% of Tottenham's recent games and 41% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tottenham and Arsenal tend to score early?
Tottenham have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Arsenal in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tottenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Tottenham 1-4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.01 xG and Arsenal 1.72 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Arsenal outscored their 1.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Arsenal attack 1.16 / defence 0.80, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Arsenal 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Arsenal's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.