Tottenham 2-3 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Tottenham face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tottenham host Arsenal at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tottenham — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Tottenham are significantly better at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Arsenal have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Tottenham, 3 for Arsenal and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at home): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (70 games, 35 at away): BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 69% versus Arsenal 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tottenham 70% | Arsenal 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.00 xG and Arsenal 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.119 / defence 0.987 | Arsenal attack 1.418 / defence 0.506. League average goals — home 1.759 / away 1.515. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.506 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Arsenal have an above-average attack strength of 1.418 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 70 Tottenham games / 72 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 16% | Draw 21% | Arsenal 63%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Arsenal 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 100% | Arsenal 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 16% | Draw 21% | Arsenal 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Tottenham 1.00 / Arsenal 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.119 / def 0.987 | Arsenal attack 1.418 / def 0.506 | league avg home 1.759 / away 1.515 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Arsenal xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Arsenal kick off?
Tottenham vs Arsenal kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Tottenham 2 - 3 Arsenal.
Where is Tottenham vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Arsenal part of?
Tottenham vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 16% chance of winning, Arsenal a 63% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tottenham and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Record (5 meetings): Tottenham 1W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 3W.
What form are Tottenham and Arsenal in?
Tottenham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Arsenal (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Tottenham's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Arsenal's defensive record (0.51x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.6%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
16%
6.18
21%
4.70
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.12
2.12
Arsenal xG
6.18
16%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
12%
8.33
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
2%
51.46
23%
4.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Tottenham and 2.12 for Arsenal, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Arsenal?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 36W 12D 22L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Arsenal's form line: 48W 11D 11L from 70 games, 2.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Tottenham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 2.09 PPG from 35 outings (24W 1D 10L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 22W 6D 7L from 35 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Tottenham are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 2.34 scored and 0.96 conceded. Tottenham's scoring rate against Arsenal's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Arsenal in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Current Season
Arsenal
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 36W 12D 22L in their last 70 games (1.71 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 48W 11D 11L in their last 70 (2.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Arsenal away?
Tottenham's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.09 PPG; Arsenal away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Arsenal in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Arsenal go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2022, when Tottenham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Tottenham
1
Draws
8
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Arsenal?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 1, Arsenal have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Tottenham 1-4 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 71%, Arsenal 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Tottenham and 51% for Arsenal. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Tottenham's recent matches and 34% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Tottenham's matches and 51% of Arsenal's.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Tottenham 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Tottenham 2-3 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.00 xG and Arsenal 2.12 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Tottenham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arsenal outscored their 2.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Arsenal attack 1.42 / defence 0.51, drawn from 70/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 16% | Draw 21% | Arsenal 63%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 70%, Arsenal 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Arsenal's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.21 PPG against 1.71. Form held, and they took the win. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.