Sunderland 1-0 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fulham have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Fulham have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Sunderland, 1.20 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sunderland lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Fulham — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 49% versus Fulham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 46% | Fulham 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.36 xG and Fulham 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.903 / defence 1.003 | Fulham attack 0.910 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.183. Data: 39 Sunderland games / 39 Fulham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 43% | Draw 28% | Fulham 29%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Fulham 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 30% | Fulham 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 43% | Draw 28% | Fulham 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Sunderland 1.36 / Fulham 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.903 / def 1.003 | Fulham attack 0.910 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Fulham xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Fulham kick off?
Sunderland vs Fulham kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Sunderland 1 - 0 Fulham.
Where is Sunderland vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Fulham part of?
Sunderland vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 43% chance of winning, Fulham a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sunderland and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Fulham?
Record (2 meetings): Sunderland 0W | Draws 0 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Sunderland and Fulham in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.90) and Fulham's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.91x) against Sunderland's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.57
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.44
1.08
Fulham xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
14%
6.90
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.08 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 12D 13L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.33 PPG from 39 outings (15W 7D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Sunderland against 1.33 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sunderland's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (4W 5D 10L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fulham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.26 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Fulham in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 14W 12D 13L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Fulham have gone 15W 7D 17L in their last 39 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Fulham away?
Sunderland's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.74 PPG; Fulham away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Sunderland
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Fulham?
From 3 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Sunderland 1-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Sunderland and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 47%, Fulham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sunderland) and 47% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sunderland have failed to score in 26% of games; Fulham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sunderland's recent matches and 53% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sunderland's recent games and 47% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Fulham tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Fulham in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Fulham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Fulham 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.36 xG and Fulham 1.08 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fulham landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Fulham attack 0.91 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 43% | Draw 28% | Fulham 29%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 46%, Fulham 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.38 PPG, Fulham 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.