Southampton 1-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fulham (71%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Southampton face Fulham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Fulham travel to St. Mary's Stadium to take on Southampton. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Southampton stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton have gone 0W 1D 9L this season (10 games, 0.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Fulham have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Fulham's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Fulham's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Southampton's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Southampton, 2 for Fulham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Southampton trading profile (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Fulham trading profile (71 games, 34 at away): BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Southampton 59% versus Fulham 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Southampton 62% | Fulham 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Southampton 0.78 xG and Fulham 2.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Southampton attack 0.569 / defence 1.629 | Fulham attack 0.977 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.420. Southampton's attack strength of 0.569 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Southampton games / 71 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Southampton 11% | Draw 18% | Fulham 71%. Fair-value odds: Southampton 9.09 | Draw 5.56 | Fulham 1.41. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (71%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Southampton 50% | Fulham 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Southampton vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: St. Mary's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Southampton 11% | Draw 18% | Fulham 71% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 49% | xG Southampton 0.78 / Fulham 2.26 • Poisson strength factors: Southampton attack 0.569 / def 1.629 | Fulham attack 0.977 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Fulham (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Southampton xG
Expected Goals
2.26
Fulham xG
49%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Southampton vs Fulham kick off?
Southampton vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at St. Mary's Stadium.
What was the final score in Southampton vs Fulham?
Southampton 1 - 2 Fulham.
Where is Southampton vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at St. Mary's Stadium.
What competition is Southampton vs Fulham part of?
Southampton vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Southampton vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Southampton a 11% chance of winning, Fulham a 71% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Southampton vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Southampton and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Southampton vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Fulham?
Record (3 meetings): Southampton 0W | Draws 1 | Fulham 2W.
What form are Southampton and Fulham in?
Southampton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Fulham (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Southampton's attack rating (0.57) and Fulham's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 0.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Southampton's defence, projects 2.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
11%
8.78
18%
5.63
71%
1.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Southampton xG
Total xG
3.04
2.26
Fulham xG
8.78
11%
Home win
5.63
18%
Draw
1.41
71%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
10%
9.58
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
1%
84.14
32%
3.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 10.8 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.3 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Southampton vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Southampton and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Southampton and 2.26 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Southampton vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Southampton come into this having played 71 games, going 25W 13D 33L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.34 PPG from 71 outings (26W 17D 28L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Southampton on 1.24 PPG, Fulham on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Southampton's home form reads 15W 3D 16L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.09 points per game from 34 outings (9W 10D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Southampton are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.45 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Southampton
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Southampton and Fulham in coming into this match?
Southampton have gone 25W 13D 33L in their last 71 games (1.24 PPG), while Fulham have gone 26W 17D 28L in their last 71 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Southampton at home or Fulham away?
Southampton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Southampton at home: 1.41 PPG; Fulham away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Southampton's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Southampton
1
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Southampton and Fulham?
From 4 meetings on record, Southampton have won 0, Fulham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Southampton and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Southampton 1-2 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Southampton and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Southampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Southampton 56%, Fulham 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Southampton and 59% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Southampton home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Southampton play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Southampton's games and 65% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Southampton vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Southampton's matches and 59% of Fulham's.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Southampton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Southampton 1-2 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 0.78 xG and Fulham 2.26 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.57 / defence 1.63 against Fulham attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Southampton 11% | Draw 18% | Fulham 71%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 62%, Fulham 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Southampton's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Southampton 1.24 PPG, Fulham 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.