Nottingham Forest 1-1 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liverpool at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Liverpool travel to The City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 14 January 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's home record at The City Ground: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Liverpool — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Liverpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Liverpool have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Nottingham Forest) versus 2.40 (Liverpool). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nottingham Forest, 3 for Liverpool and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Nottingham Forest winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Liverpool trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 56% versus Liverpool 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Liverpool 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.37 xG and Liverpool 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.917 / defence 0.721 | Liverpool attack 1.613 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.512. Liverpool have an above-average attack strength of 1.613 — the away xG of 1.76 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Nottingham Forest's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Nottingham Forest games / 57 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 28% | Draw 28% | Liverpool 45%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Liverpool 2.22. Liverpool hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 50% | Liverpool 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jan 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 28% | Draw 28% | Liverpool 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.37 / Liverpool 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.917 / def 0.721 | Liverpool attack 1.613 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Liverpool xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Liverpool.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 28% chance of winning, Liverpool a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
Record (5 meetings): Nottingham Forest 2W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 3W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Liverpool (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Liverpool's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
28%
3.59
28%
3.62
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
3.13
1.76
Liverpool xG
3.59
28%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
17%
5.80
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
5%
20.82
11%
8.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.76 for Liverpool, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 21W 13D 23L from 57 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have gone 38W 14D 5L across 57 games — 2.25 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Liverpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Liverpool by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nottingham Forest heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Liverpool's away record stands at 16W 9D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.04 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.33 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Liverpool in 63%.
Last 57 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Liverpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 21W 13D 23L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 38W 14D 5L in their last 57 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.32 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.04 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Liverpool in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when Liverpool won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
4
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
From 9 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 3, Liverpool have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Liverpool 2-2 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 61%, Liverpool 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nottingham Forest) and 68% (Liverpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Liverpool?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Nottingham Forest's games and 68% of Liverpool's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 68% of Liverpool's.
Nottingham Forest and Liverpool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest and Liverpool finished level at 1-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.37 xG and Liverpool 1.76 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.92 / defence 0.72 against Liverpool attack 1.61 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 28% | Draw 28% | Liverpool 45%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Liverpool 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Liverpool's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.