Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Bournemouth travel to St. James' Park to take on Newcastle. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Newcastle have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Newcastle's home record at St. James' Park: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St. James' Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 2.00 PPG, Bournemouth 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Bournemouth and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Newcastle in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 58% versus Bournemouth 61%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Newcastle 66% | Bournemouth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.86 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.200 / defence 0.698 | Bournemouth attack 1.195 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.502. Newcastle's defence rating of 0.698 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Newcastle games / 59 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 50% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Bournemouth 4.17. Newcastle hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Newcastle as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newcastle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 30% | Bournemouth 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 50% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Newcastle 1.86 / Bournemouth 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.200 / def 0.698 | Bournemouth attack 1.195 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bournemouth xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Bournemouth kick off?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Newcastle 1 - 4 Bournemouth.
Where is Newcastle vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Bournemouth part of?
Newcastle vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 50% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Newcastle and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Record (5 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 4 | Bournemouth 1W.
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in?
Newcastle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.20) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.74
24%
4.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Newcastle xG
Total xG
3.11
1.25
Bournemouth xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
4.22
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
27.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.25 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Newcastle's recent record stands at 29W 11D 19L from 59 games, a 1.66 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 21L across 59 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.66 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 18W 6D 5L from 29 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.66 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 7D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Newcastle are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.46 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bournemouth in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 29W 11D 19L in their last 59 games (1.66 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 22W 16D 21L in their last 59 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Bournemouth away?
Newcastle's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 2.07 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Newcastle and Bournemouth runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 5 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when Bournemouth won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Newcastle
6
Draws
3
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
From 9 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 0, Bournemouth have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 5 September 2026, when Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 48%, Bournemouth 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Newcastle and 76% for Bournemouth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Bournemouth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Newcastle's games and 69% of Bournemouth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Newcastle's matches and 76% of Bournemouth's.
Dominant Bournemouth run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Newcastle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Newcastle 1-4 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.86 xG and Bournemouth 1.25 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Bournemouth outscored their 1.25 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.20 / defence 0.70 against Bournemouth attack 1.20 / defence 1.06, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 50% | Draw 27% | Bournemouth 24%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Bournemouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 66%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.66 PPG, Bournemouth 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.