Leeds 3-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leeds at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Leeds host Burnley at Elland Road in Premier League, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 1 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Leeds — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Leeds's home record at Elland Road: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Burnley have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Burnley have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Leeds carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Leeds have won 1, Burnley 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Burnley winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Leeds in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Burnley in-play tendencies (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 46% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 50% | Burnley 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 2.06 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 0.940 / defence 0.968 | Burnley attack 0.834 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.397 / away 1.254. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.565 — this is suppressing Leeds's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 34 Leeds games / 34 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 61% | Draw 22% | Burnley 17%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Burnley 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Leeds 40% | Burnley 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Friday 1 May 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 61% | Draw 22% | Burnley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 56% | xG Leeds 2.06 / Burnley 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 0.940 / def 0.968 | Burnley attack 0.834 / def 1.565 | league avg home 1.397 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Leeds (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Burnley xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Burnley kick off?
Leeds vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 May 2026 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Burnley?
Leeds 3 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Leeds vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Burnley part of?
Leeds vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 61% chance of winning, Burnley a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Leeds and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Burnley?
Record (5 meetings): Leeds 1W | Draws 2 | Burnley 2W.
What form are Leeds and Burnley in?
Leeds (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leeds's attack rating (0.94) and Burnley's defence rating (1.56), the model arrives at 2.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Leeds's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
61%
1.65
22%
4.46
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Leeds xG
Total xG
3.07
1.01
Burnley xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
13%
7.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
2%
45.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Leeds and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Leeds and 1.01 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 80 outings, Leeds have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 38W 26D 16L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 32W 24D 24L from 80 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leeds on 1.75 PPG, Burnley on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Leeds have posted 2.10 PPG from 40 outings (25W 9D 6L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 16W 10D 14L from 40 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Leeds are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.29 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Burnley in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Current Season
Burnley
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Burnley in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 38W 26D 16L in their last 80 games (1.75 PPG), while Burnley have gone 32W 24D 24L in their last 80 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Burnley away?
Leeds's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.10 PPG; Burnley away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Leeds or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Burnley in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Leeds and Burnley runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Premier League, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leeds's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Leeds
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Leeds have won 2, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Leeds 3-1 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 42%, Burnley 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Leeds) and 48% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Burnley in 38%; Burnley in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Leeds's recent matches and 48% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Leeds's recent games and 48% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leeds and Burnley tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Burnley in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Leeds cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Burnley 3-1 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.06 xG and Burnley 1.01 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.56, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 61% | Draw 22% | Burnley 17%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 50%, Burnley 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leeds 1.75 PPG, Burnley 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leeds win broke the near-deadlock. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.