Fulham 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 40%, yet in-form Hull City provide a compelling counter-argument — this Fulham vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fulham and Hull City meet at Craven Cottage in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fulham (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Fulham are significantly better at Craven Cottage than their overall form suggests.
Hull City's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Hull City have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Hull City have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Hull City arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fulham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hull City in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fulham, 0 for Hull City and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Fulham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hull City — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 54% versus Hull City 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 50% | Hull City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.51 xG and Hull City 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 0.994 / defence 1.195 | Hull City attack 0.858 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.539 / away 1.290. Data: 44 Fulham games / 6 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 40% | Draw 28% | Hull City 32%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Hull City 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Hull City (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fulham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 60% | Hull City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Hull City | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 40% | Draw 28% | Hull City 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Fulham 1.51 / Hull City 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 0.994 / def 1.195 | Hull City attack 0.858 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.539 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Fulham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hull City xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Hull City kick off?
Fulham vs Hull City kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Hull City?
Fulham 1 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Fulham vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Hull City part of?
Fulham vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 40% chance of winning, Hull City a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Fulham and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Hull City?
Record (2 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 0 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Fulham and Hull City in?
Fulham (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Hull City's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.86x) against Fulham's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.63
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.83
1.32
Hull City xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.27
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fulham and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Fulham and 1.32 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham come into this having played 44 games, going 15W 9D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.61 PPG from 44 outings (20W 11D 13L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Fulham against 1.61 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Fulham's home form reads 11W 3D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Fulham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.41 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Hull City in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 games (1.23 PPG), while Hull City have gone 20W 11D 13L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.64 PPG; Hull City away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Fulham or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Hull City in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Fulham have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
3
Fulham
0
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Hull City?
From 3 meetings on record, Fulham have won 3, Hull City have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Fulham 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Hull City?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 59%, Hull City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Fulham) and 64% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hull City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Fulham's games and 59% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Fulham's matches and 64% of Hull City's.
Do Fulham and Hull City tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Hull City in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fulham edge out Hull City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Hull City 1-0 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.51 xG and Hull City 1.32 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hull City landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 1.20 against Hull City attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 40% | Draw 28% | Hull City 32%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 50%, Hull City 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Hull City's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.23 PPG, Hull City 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.