Fulham 1-2 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crystal Palace make the trip to Craven Cottage to face Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham at Craven Cottage this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Crystal Palace arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fulham lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 0–2 with Crystal Palace winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fulham — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fulham 67% and Crystal Palace 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 56% | Crystal Palace 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.23 xG and Crystal Palace 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.150 / defence 1.143 | Crystal Palace attack 0.994 / defence 0.691. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.263. Crystal Palace's defence strength of 0.691 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Fulham games / 52 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 32% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 42%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Crystal Palace as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fulham 50% | Crystal Palace 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 32% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Fulham 1.23 / Crystal Palace 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.150 / def 1.143 | Crystal Palace attack 0.994 / def 0.691 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Crystal Palace xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Fulham 1 - 2 Crystal Palace.
Where is Fulham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Fulham vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 32% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fulham and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
Record (6 meetings): Fulham 2W | Draws 3 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in?
Fulham (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Crystal Palace (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Fulham's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Crystal Palace's defensive record (0.69x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.99x) against Fulham's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
32%
3.12
26%
3.78
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.67
1.44
Crystal Palace xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
8%
13.12
12%
8.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.0 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fulham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Fulham and 1.44 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fulham's recent record stands at 20W 11D 21L from 52 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 14L across 52 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Fulham against 1.46 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fulham have managed 11W 6D 9L from 26 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 11W 8D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fulham are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.33 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 20W 11D 21L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 19W 19D 14L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Crystal Palace's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 1.50 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Fulham or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fulham have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fulham
4
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Crystal Palace?
From 8 meetings on record, Fulham have won 2, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 1 January 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-1 Fulham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fulham see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 65%, Crystal Palace 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Fulham) and 42% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Crystal Palace?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Fulham's games and 46% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fulham vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Fulham's recent games and 42% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Crystal Palace tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Crystal Palace in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Fulham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Fulham 1-2 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.23 xG and Crystal Palace 1.44 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.15 / defence 1.14 against Crystal Palace attack 0.99 / defence 0.69, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 32% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 42%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 56%, Crystal Palace 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 1.37 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.