Everton 0-0 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Everton vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Tottenham in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 7 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Everton's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 games at Goodison Park this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Tottenham have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Tottenham have posted 2W 0D 3L from 5 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Everton, 1.50 for Tottenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Tottenham — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 60% versus Tottenham 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 60% | Tottenham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.63 xG and Tottenham 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 1.137 / defence 1.304 | Tottenham attack 0.719 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.461. Tottenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Everton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Everton games / 10 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 24% | Tottenham 32%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Tottenham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Everton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Everton 60% | Tottenham 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 44% | Draw 24% | Tottenham 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Everton 1.63 / Tottenham 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 1.137 / def 1.304 | Tottenham attack 0.719 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Everton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Tottenham xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Tottenham kick off?
Everton vs Tottenham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Tottenham?
Everton 0 - 0 Tottenham.
Where is Everton vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Tottenham part of?
Everton vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 44% chance of winning, Tottenham a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Everton and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Tottenham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Everton and Tottenham in?
Everton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Tottenham (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton's attack at 1.14x the league average against Tottenham's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (0.72x) against Everton's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.15
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Everton xG
Total xG
3.00
1.37
Tottenham xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Everton and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Everton and 1.37 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 4W 2D 4L from 10 games, a 1.40 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 5W 0D 5L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Everton against 1.50 for Tottenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Tottenham's away record stands at 2W 0D 3L across 5 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Everton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 0.90 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Everton have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Tottenham in 30%.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 games (1.40 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Tottenham away?
Everton's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.80 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Everton or Tottenham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Tottenham in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Tottenham go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tottenham won 5-0 on 7 Mar 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tottenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
3
Draws
6
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Tottenham have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Tottenham 1-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 60%, Tottenham 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Everton and 60% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Tottenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Everton's recent matches and 40% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Everton's matches and 60% of Tottenham's.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton and Tottenham finished level at 0-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.63 xG and Tottenham 1.37 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Tottenham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 1.14 / defence 1.30 against Tottenham attack 0.72 / defence 1.38, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 44% | Draw 24% | Tottenham 32%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 60%, Tottenham 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Tottenham's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Everton 1.40 PPG, Tottenham 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.