Everton 2-2 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Tottenham at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Tottenham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Goodison Park plays host to Everton versus Tottenham in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
Everton's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Everton's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Tottenham have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Tottenham have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Everton, 1.70 for Tottenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Tottenham, who have 3 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 23 Dec 2023, ended Everton 1–2 Tottenham — a Tottenham win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Tottenham have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Everton — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Tottenham — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 42% versus Tottenham 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 45% | Tottenham 67%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Everton surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Tottenham have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.38 xG and Tottenham 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.750 / defence 0.865 | Tottenham attack 1.264 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.386. Everton's attack rating of 0.750 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.38. Tottenham have an above-average attack rating of 1.264, which lifts their away xG to 1.52. Data: built from Everton's last 60 games and Tottenham's last 60.
Result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 40%. Fair-value odds: Everton 2.96 | Draw 3.83 | Tottenham 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Tottenham 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tottenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.89 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Everton's last 10 home games and Tottenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Everton 30% (last 10 home games) | Tottenham 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 34% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Everton 1.38 / Tottenham 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.750 / def 0.865 | Tottenham attack 1.264 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Tottenham xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Everton vs Tottenham FAQs
What time does Everton vs Tottenham kick off?
Everton vs Tottenham kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Tottenham?
Everton 2 - 2 Tottenham.
Where is Everton vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Tottenham part of?
Everton vs Tottenham is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 34% chance of winning, Tottenham a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Everton and Tottenham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Everton vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.75x the league average against Tottenham's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Tottenham's attack (1.26x) against Everton's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from Everton's last 60 games and Tottenham's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
34%
2.96
26%
3.83
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Everton xG
Total xG
2.89
1.52
Tottenham xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
7%
13.49
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Everton vs Tottenham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Everton and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Everton and 1.52 for Tottenham, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Everton's recent record stands at 16W 16D 28L from 60 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have gone 31W 10D 19L across 60 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Tottenham by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Everton heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Everton have managed 9W 5D 16L from their last 30 home games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tottenham's away record stands at 11W 9D 10L across their last 30 away games, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Everton are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.95 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham in 68%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
Everton (Home) vs Tottenham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Everton
Blended
Tottenham
Blended
❓ Everton vs Tottenham Form FAQs
What form are Everton and Tottenham in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 16W 16D 28L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 31W 10D 19L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Tottenham away?
Tottenham's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.07 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Everton and Tottenham, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tottenham won Tottenham 5-0 Everton on 7 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Everton have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Tottenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
3
Draws
6
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Everton vs Tottenham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Tottenham?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Everton have won 1, Tottenham have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Tottenham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Tottenham 0-0 Everton.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Everton see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Tottenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 37%, Tottenham 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Everton) and 67% (Tottenham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Everton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Everton have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Everton vs Tottenham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Everton and Tottenham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Everton's recent matches and 70% of Tottenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Everton and Tottenham matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Everton's matches and 67% of Tottenham's.
Do Everton and Tottenham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Everton's recent matches and 80% of Tottenham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Everton and Tottenham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 23, as Everton and Tottenham drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.38 xG and Tottenham 1.52 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.75 / defence 0.86 against Tottenham attack 1.26 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 34% | Draw 26% | Tottenham 40%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 45%, Tottenham 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Tottenham's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Premier League fixtures — matchday 23
All Premier League fixtures →
More UK football predictions →