Everton 0-0 Liverpool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Liverpool at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Everton vs Liverpool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 6 as Everton welcome Liverpool to Goodison Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Everton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's home record at Goodison Park: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Liverpool — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Liverpool have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Liverpool's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Liverpool's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Everton's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Everton, 2 for Liverpool and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Liverpool winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Everton in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Liverpool in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Everton 56% versus Liverpool 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Everton 51% | Liverpool 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Everton 1.14 xG and Liverpool 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Everton attack 0.769 / defence 1.016 | Liverpool attack 1.159 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.172. Everton's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 43 Everton games / 43 Liverpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Everton 30% | Draw 29% | Liverpool 41%. Fair-value odds: Everton 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Liverpool 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Liverpool as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liverpool offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Everton 40% | Liverpool 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Everton vs Liverpool | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Goodison Park • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Everton 30% | Draw 29% | Liverpool 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Everton 1.14 / Liverpool 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Everton attack 0.769 / def 1.016 | Liverpool attack 1.159 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.584 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Liverpool (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Everton xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Liverpool xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Everton vs Liverpool kick off?
Everton vs Liverpool kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Goodison Park.
What was the final score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Everton 0 - 0 Liverpool.
Where is Everton vs Liverpool being played?
The match is being played at Goodison Park.
What competition is Everton vs Liverpool part of?
Everton vs Liverpool is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Everton vs Liverpool?
Our statistical model gives Everton a 30% chance of winning, Liverpool a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Liverpool the favourite.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Liverpool?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Everton and Liverpool will score (BTTS).
Will Everton vs Liverpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
Record (2 meetings): Everton 0W | Draws 0 | Liverpool 2W.
What form are Everton and Liverpool in?
Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Liverpool (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Everton's attack at 0.77x the league average against Liverpool's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Liverpool's attack versus Everton's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liverpool Win
30%
3.34
29%
3.50
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Everton xG
Total xG
2.52
1.38
Liverpool xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
13%
7.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Everton vs Liverpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Everton and Liverpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Everton and 1.38 for Liverpool, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Everton vs Liverpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Everton come into this having played 43 games, going 11W 9D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Liverpool sit at 2.33 PPG from 43 outings (30W 10D 3L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Liverpool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Liverpool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.35 PPG clear of Everton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Everton's home form reads 9W 3D 9L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Everton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Liverpool have taken 2.10 points per game from 21 outings (13W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liverpool come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Everton are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Liverpool are on 2.53 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Liverpool in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Everton
Early Season
Liverpool
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Everton and Liverpool in coming into this match?
Everton have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Liverpool have gone 30W 10D 3L in their last 43 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Everton at home or Liverpool away?
Liverpool's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Everton at home: 1.43 PPG; Liverpool away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Everton or Liverpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Everton have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Liverpool in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Liverpool have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Dec 2021, when Liverpool won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Everton's record when hosting Liverpool specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Everton
2
Draws
7
Liverpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Everton and Liverpool?
From 10 meetings on record, Everton have won 1, Liverpool have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Everton and Liverpool last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Everton 1-2 Liverpool.
Who has won more matches between Everton and Liverpool?
Liverpool have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Everton 48%, Liverpool 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Everton) and 71% (Liverpool). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Liverpool in 43%; Everton have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Everton home games / Liverpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Everton play Liverpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Everton's recent matches and 52% of Liverpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Everton vs Liverpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Everton's matches and 71% of Liverpool's.
Stalemate at Everton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton and Liverpool finished level at 0-0 at Goodison Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Everton 1.14 xG and Liverpool 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Everton fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Liverpool landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Everton attack 0.77 / defence 1.02 against Liverpool attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Everton 30% | Draw 29% | Liverpool 41%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Everton 51%, Liverpool 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Everton's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Liverpool's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Everton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.