Crystal Palace 2-1 Wolves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crystal Palace at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crystal Palace vs Wolves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Wolves travel to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 18 October 2022, 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Crystal Palace — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Selhurst Park, Crystal Palace have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Selhurst Park. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Crystal Palace are significantly better at Selhurst Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolves stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolves have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 1.30 PPG versus Wolves's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Crystal Palace have won 2, Wolves 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Crystal Palace winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Crystal Palace in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Wolves in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 53% versus Wolves 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 49% | Wolves 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.47 xG and Wolves 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.908 / defence 1.001 | Wolves attack 0.650 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.158. Data: 47 Crystal Palace games / 48 Wolves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 52% | Draw 30% | Wolves 17%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 1.92 | Draw 3.33 | Wolves 5.88. Crystal Palace hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crystal Palace are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crystal Palace offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 40% | Wolves 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Wolves | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Oct 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 52% | Draw 30% | Wolves 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Crystal Palace 1.47 / Wolves 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.908 / def 1.001 | Wolves attack 0.650 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Crystal Palace (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Wolves xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Wolves kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Wolves kicked off at 20:15 on Tuesday 18 October 2022 at Selhurst Park.
What was the final score in Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Crystal Palace 2 - 1 Wolves.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Wolves being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Wolves part of?
Crystal Palace vs Wolves is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 52% chance of winning, Wolves a 17% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Crystal Palace the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Crystal Palace and Wolves will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Wolves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Wolves?
Record (2 meetings): Crystal Palace 2W | Draws 0 | Wolves 0W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Wolves in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Wolves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crystal Palace's attack at 0.91x the league average against Wolves's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolves's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crystal Palace Win
52%
1.91
30%
3.31
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.22
0.75
Wolves xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
25%
4.05
4%
25.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.0 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Wolves expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 0.75 for Wolves, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Wolves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crystal Palace come into this having played 47 games, going 13W 19D 15L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolves sit at 1.28 PPG from 47 outings (17W 9D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.23 PPG, Wolves on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Crystal Palace's home form reads 9W 8D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolves have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (8W 4D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Wolves are on 0.89 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Blended
Wolves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Wolves in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 13W 19D 15L in their last 47 games (1.23 PPG), while Wolves have gone 17W 9D 21L in their last 47 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Wolves away?
Crystal Palace's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.52 PPG; Wolves away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Wolves been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Wolves in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Crystal Palace have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Wolves specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Crystal Palace
1
Draws
1
Wolves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Wolves?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 8, Wolves have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Wolves last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Crystal Palace 1-0 Wolves.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Wolves?
Crystal Palace have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 56%, Wolves 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Crystal Palace) and 30% (Wolves).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Wolves in 35%; Wolves in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Wolves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Wolves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 30% of Wolves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Wolves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 30% of Wolves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Crystal Palace edge out Wolves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crystal Palace beat Wolves 2-1 at Selhurst Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crystal Palace 1.47 xG and Wolves 0.75 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crystal Palace attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Wolves attack 0.65 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crystal Palace 52% | Draw 30% | Wolves 17%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crystal Palace 49%, Wolves 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crystal Palace's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wolves's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crystal Palace 1.23 PPG, Wolves 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crystal Palace win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.