Crystal Palace vs Everton – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Everton at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crystal Palace vs Everton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crystal Palace host Everton at Selhurst Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Crystal Palace have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Everton have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Everton's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crystal Palace at 0.60 PPG versus Everton's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crystal Palace register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Everton in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 10 encounters between these sides heavily favour Everton, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Crystal Palace.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2026, ended 0–2 with Everton winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Everton have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Everton in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crystal Palace 52% versus Everton 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crystal Palace 55% | Everton 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crystal Palace 1.28 xG and Everton 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crystal Palace attack 0.886 / defence 1.288 | Everton attack 0.961 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.593 / away 1.210. Data: 40 Crystal Palace games / 40 Everton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Crystal Palace 32% | Draw 25% | Everton 42%. Fair-value odds: Crystal Palace 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Everton 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Everton are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crystal Palace 60% | Everton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crystal Palace vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Selhurst Park • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crystal Palace 32% | Draw 25% | Everton 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Crystal Palace 1.28 / Everton 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Crystal Palace attack 0.886 / def 1.288 | Everton attack 0.961 / def 0.908 | league avg home 1.593 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Everton (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Crystal Palace xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Everton xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crystal Palace vs Everton kick off?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Selhurst Park.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at Selhurst Park.
What competition is Crystal Palace vs Everton part of?
Crystal Palace vs Everton is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Crystal Palace a 32% chance of winning, Everton a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Crystal Palace and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Crystal Palace vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Record (10 meetings): Crystal Palace 0W | Draws 3 | Everton 7W.
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in?
Crystal Palace (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Everton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Crystal Palace's attack rating (0.89) and Everton's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Crystal Palace's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
32%
3.08
25%
3.97
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Crystal Palace xG
Total xG
2.78
1.50
Everton xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Crystal Palace and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Crystal Palace and 1.50 for Everton, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Crystal Palace vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Crystal Palace have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 12D 17L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Crystal Palace, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Everton's form line: 14W 11D 15L from 40 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Everton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crystal Palace on 1.12 PPG, Everton on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Crystal Palace have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (4W 9D 7L).
On the road, Everton have gone 7W 6D 7L from 20 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Crystal Palace are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.25 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crystal Palace
Early Season
Everton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crystal Palace and Everton in coming into this match?
Crystal Palace have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Everton have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crystal Palace at home or Everton away?
Everton's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crystal Palace at home: 1.05 PPG; Everton away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Crystal Palace or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crystal Palace have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Everton in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Crystal Palace and Everton runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Everton won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crystal Palace's record when hosting Everton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Crystal Palace
3
Draws
7
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crystal Palace and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Crystal Palace have won 0, Everton have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Crystal Palace and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Everton 2-0 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Crystal Palace and Everton?
Everton have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crystal Palace are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crystal Palace 55%, Everton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Crystal Palace) and 35% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Crystal Palace have failed to score in 35% of games; Everton in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crystal Palace home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crystal Palace play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Crystal Palace's recent matches and 50% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crystal Palace vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Crystal Palace's recent games and 35% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crystal Palace and Everton tend to score early?
Crystal Palace have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Everton in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.