Chelsea 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Chelsea (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Chelsea face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Burnley travel to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Chelsea — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Chelsea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Chelsea have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stamford Bridge — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Chelsea are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Chelsea have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while Burnley have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with Chelsea winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Chelsea and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Chelsea trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Burnley trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chelsea 61% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chelsea 59% | Burnley 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chelsea 2.41 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chelsea attack 1.164 / defence 1.010 | Burnley attack 0.923 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.274. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Chelsea's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Chelsea games / 26 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chelsea 63% | Draw 22% | Burnley 16%. Fair-value odds: Chelsea 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Burnley 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Chelsea (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.41 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chelsea are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Chelsea 70% | Burnley 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chelsea vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stamford Bridge • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chelsea 63% | Draw 22% | Burnley 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 65% | xG Chelsea 2.41 / Burnley 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chelsea attack 1.164 / def 1.010 | Burnley attack 0.923 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Chelsea (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Chelsea xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Burnley xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chelsea vs Burnley kick off?
Chelsea vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Stamford Bridge.
What was the final score in Chelsea vs Burnley?
Chelsea 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Chelsea vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Stamford Bridge.
What competition is Chelsea vs Burnley part of?
Chelsea vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Chelsea a 63% chance of winning, Burnley a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Chelsea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Chelsea and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Chelsea vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Burnley?
Record (5 meetings): Chelsea 3W | Draws 2 | Burnley 0W.
What form are Chelsea and Burnley in?
Chelsea (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Chelsea's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Chelsea's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chelsea Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.58
16%
6.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Chelsea xG
Total xG
3.60
1.19
Burnley xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
6.45
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.86
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
9%
11.18
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
1%
72.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Chelsea and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Chelsea and 1.19 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Chelsea's recent record stands at 32W 17D 15L from 64 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Chelsea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 27W 20D 17L across 64 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-D-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Chelsea on 1.77 PPG, Burnley on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Chelsea have managed 18W 9D 5L from 32 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 14W 8D 10L across 32 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chelsea come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Chelsea are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.30 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chelsea have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Burnley in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chelsea
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chelsea and Burnley in coming into this match?
Chelsea have gone 32W 17D 15L in their last 64 games (1.77 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 20D 17L in their last 64 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chelsea at home or Burnley away?
Chelsea's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chelsea at home: 1.97 PPG; Burnley away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Chelsea or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chelsea have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Burnley in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Chelsea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chelsea's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Chelsea
3
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chelsea and Burnley?
From 6 meetings on record, Chelsea have won 3, Burnley have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chelsea and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Chelsea 1-1 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Chelsea and Burnley?
Chelsea have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Chelsea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chelsea 62%, Burnley 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Chelsea) and 50% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Chelsea keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Burnley in 41%; Burnley in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chelsea home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chelsea play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Chelsea's recent matches and 47% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chelsea vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Chelsea's recent games and 50% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chelsea and Burnley tend to score early?
Chelsea have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Burnley in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chelsea and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stamford Bridge, Regular Season - 27, as Chelsea and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chelsea 2.41 xG and Burnley 1.19 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Chelsea fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chelsea attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Burnley attack 0.92 / defence 1.42, drawn from 64/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chelsea 63% | Draw 22% | Burnley 16%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chelsea 59%, Burnley 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chelsea's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Chelsea 1.77 PPG, Burnley 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.