Arsenal 2-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Arsenal at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arsenal vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Fulham in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Fulham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fulham's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Arsenal's 2.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Fulham's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Fulham — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 42% versus Fulham 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 58% | Fulham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.99 xG and Fulham 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.296 / defence 1.032 | Fulham attack 0.701 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.630 / away 1.218. Arsenal carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Arsenal games / 3 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arsenal 63% | Draw 21% | Fulham 16%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Fulham 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Arsenal (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 70% | Fulham 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 63% | Draw 21% | Fulham 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 51% | xG Arsenal 1.99 / Fulham 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.296 / def 1.032 | Fulham attack 0.701 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.630 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Fulham xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Fulham kick off?
Arsenal vs Fulham kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Arsenal 2 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Arsenal vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Fulham part of?
Arsenal vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 63% chance of winning, Fulham a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Arsenal and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in?
Arsenal (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Arsenal's attack at 1.30x the league average against Fulham's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (0.70x) against Arsenal's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.78
16%
6.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Arsenal xG
Total xG
2.87
0.88
Fulham xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
6.29
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
2%
45.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Arsenal and 0.88 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 41 outings, Arsenal have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 25W 3D 13L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fulham's form line: 23W 10D 8L from 41 games, 1.93 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Fulham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Arsenal against 1.93 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.20 PPG from 20 outings (14W 2D 4L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 10W 6D 4L from 20 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arsenal are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.27 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Fulham in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Early Season
Fulham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Fulham in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 25W 3D 13L in their last 41 games (1.90 PPG), while Fulham have gone 23W 10D 8L in their last 41 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Fulham away?
Arsenal's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.20 PPG; Fulham away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Fulham in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Arsenal go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Arsenal won 0-3 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Arsenal
2
Draws
1
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 5, Fulham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Arsenal 3-0 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Fulham?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arsenal 55%, Fulham 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Arsenal) and 40% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Fulham in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Fulham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Arsenal's recent matches and 45% of Fulham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arsenal vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Arsenal's recent games and 40% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Arsenal edge out Fulham 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Fulham 2-1 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.99 xG and Fulham 0.88 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.30 / defence 1.03 against Fulham attack 0.70 / defence 0.94, drawn from 41/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 63% | Draw 21% | Fulham 16%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 58%, Fulham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arsenal 1.90 PPG, Fulham 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Arsenal win broke the near-deadlock. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.