Wrexham 4-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wrexham vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 30 as Wrexham welcome Crawley Town to STōK Cae Ras. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 9 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wrexham stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at STōK Cae Ras this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.
Crawley Town — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Form points away from home here. Crawley Town's 2.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Wrexham's 1.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Wrexham have won 1, Crawley Town 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Wrexham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wrexham in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 50% versus Crawley Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 48% | Crawley Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 1.28 xG and Crawley Town 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.144 / defence 0.718 | Crawley Town attack 1.280 / defence 0.794. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.297. Crawley Town's defence strength of 0.794 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Crawley Town have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Wrexham's defence rating of 0.718 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Wrexham games / 87 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 38% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 34%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Crawley Town 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wrexham as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Crawley Town (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wrexham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Wrexham 20% | Crawley Town 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 38% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Wrexham 1.28 / Crawley Town 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.144 / def 0.718 | Crawley Town attack 1.280 / def 0.794 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Crawley Town xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Crawley Town kick off?
Wrexham vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Wrexham 4 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Wrexham vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Crawley Town part of?
Wrexham vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 38% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Wrexham and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 1W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Crawley Town in?
Wrexham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wrexham's attack rating (1.14) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Wrexham's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.57
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Wrexham xG
Total xG
2.47
1.19
Crawley Town xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.19 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wrexham come into this having played 42 games, going 22W 10D 10L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.55 PPG from 42 outings (20W 5D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wrexham on 1.81 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wrexham's home form reads 14W 3D 3L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.81 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.60 points per game from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wrexham are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.57 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 22W 10D 10L in their last 42 games (1.81 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 20W 5D 17L in their last 42 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Crawley Town away?
Wrexham's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.25 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wrexham and Crawley Town runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Wrexham have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2024, when Wrexham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wrexham's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Wrexham
0
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 4, Crawley Town have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Crawley Town 1-2 Wrexham.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Crawley Town?
Wrexham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 45%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Wrexham) and 55% (Crawley Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Crawley Town in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Wrexham's recent matches and 50% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wrexham vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Wrexham's matches and 55% of Crawley Town's.
Do Wrexham and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wrexham run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wrexham beat Crawley Town 4-1 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 1.28 xG and Crawley Town 1.19 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Wrexham beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.14 / defence 0.72 against Crawley Town attack 1.28 / defence 0.79, drawn from 42/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 38% | Draw 28% | Crawley Town 34%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 48%, Crawley Town 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wrexham 1.81 PPG, Crawley Town 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wrexham win broke the near-deadlock. Wrexham (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.