Wrexham 0-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wrexham at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wrexham vs Bradford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
STōK Cae Ras plays host to Wrexham versus Bradford in League Two, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wrexham have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Wrexham's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at STōK Cae Ras this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at STōK Cae Ras. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Wrexham are significantly better at STōK Cae Ras than their overall form suggests.
Bradford (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Bradford have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Wrexham. A 0.80 PPG lead over Bradford (1.90 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wrexham 0W, Bradford 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Wrexham — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Bradford — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wrexham 54% versus Bradford 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wrexham 54% | Bradford 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wrexham 2.14 xG and Bradford 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wrexham attack 1.516 / defence 0.949 | Bradford attack 0.927 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.477 / away 1.332. Wrexham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.516 — their λ of 2.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 Wrexham games / 76 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wrexham 59% | Draw 22% | Bradford 19%. Fair-value odds: Wrexham 1.69 | Draw 4.55 | Bradford 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Wrexham (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.14 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wrexham are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Wrexham 50% | Bradford 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wrexham vs Bradford | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: STōK Cae Ras • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wrexham 59% | Draw 22% | Bradford 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 62% | xG Wrexham 2.14 / Bradford 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Wrexham attack 1.516 / def 0.949 | Bradford attack 0.927 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.477 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
Wrexham xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bradford xG
62%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wrexham vs Bradford kick off?
Wrexham vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at STōK Cae Ras.
What was the final score in Wrexham vs Bradford?
Wrexham 0 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Wrexham vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at STōK Cae Ras.
What competition is Wrexham vs Bradford part of?
Wrexham vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Wrexham vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Wrexham a 59% chance of winning, Bradford a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wrexham vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Wrexham and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Wrexham vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Bradford?
Record (1 meetings): Wrexham 0W | Draws 1 | Bradford 0W.
What form are Wrexham and Bradford in?
Wrexham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Bradford (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Wrexham's attack rating (1.52) and Bradford's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bradford's attack (0.93x) against Wrexham's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 28/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
59%
1.70
22%
4.60
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
Wrexham xG
Total xG
3.31
1.17
Bradford xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
12%
8.50
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
2%
43.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wrexham vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Wrexham and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.17 for Bradford, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Wrexham vs Bradford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Wrexham have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 15W 7D 6L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Bradford's form line: 8W 10D 10L from 28 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Wrexham are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bradford.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Wrexham have posted 2.50 PPG from 14 outings (11W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Wrexham are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bradford have gone 5W 2D 7L from 14 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wrexham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wrexham are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.18 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wrexham
Current Season
Bradford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wrexham and Bradford in coming into this match?
Wrexham have gone 15W 7D 6L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Bradford have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wrexham at home or Bradford away?
Wrexham's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wrexham at home: 2.50 PPG; Bradford away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Wrexham or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wrexham have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bradford in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Wrexham
1
Draws
1
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wrexham and Bradford?
From 2 meetings on record, Wrexham have won 0, Bradford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wrexham and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Wrexham 0-1 Bradford.
Who has won more matches between Wrexham and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wrexham 64%, Bradford 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Wrexham and 57% for Bradford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wrexham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bradford in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wrexham home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wrexham play Bradford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Wrexham's games and 50% of Bradford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wrexham vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Wrexham's matches and 57% of Bradford's.
Do Wrexham and Bradford tend to score early?
Wrexham have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Bradford in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bradford defy the odds to beat Wrexham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Wrexham 0-1 at STōK Cae Ras, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wrexham 2.14 xG and Bradford 1.17 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wrexham fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wrexham attack 1.52 / defence 0.95 against Bradford attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 28/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wrexham 59% | Draw 22% | Bradford 19%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Bradford win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wrexham 54%, Bradford 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wrexham's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Wrexham arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Bradford winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Wrexham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Bradford (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.