Walsall 3-1 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Walsall at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Walsall vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Walsall and Harrogate Town meet at Poundland Bescot Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Walsall's overall League Two record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Walsall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Walsall have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Walsall are significantly better at Poundland Bescot Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Harrogate Town have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Walsall against 0.50 for Harrogate Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Walsall lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Walsall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Walsall 52% versus Harrogate Town 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Walsall 42% | Harrogate Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Walsall 1.44 xG and Harrogate Town 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Walsall attack 1.085 / defence 0.918 | Harrogate Town attack 0.813 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.050. Data: 61 Walsall games / 60 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Walsall 53% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 20%. Fair-value odds: Walsall 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Harrogate Town 5.00. Walsall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Walsall at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Walsall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Walsall 40% | Harrogate Town 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Walsall vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Poundland Bescot Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Walsall 53% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Walsall 1.44 / Harrogate Town 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Walsall attack 1.085 / def 0.918 | Harrogate Town attack 0.813 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Walsall (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Walsall xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Harrogate Town xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Walsall vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 October 2022 at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What was the final score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Walsall 3 - 1 Harrogate Town.
Where is Walsall vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at Poundland Bescot Stadium.
What competition is Walsall vs Harrogate Town part of?
Walsall vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Walsall a 53% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Walsall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Walsall and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Walsall vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Harrogate Town?
Record (2 meetings): Walsall 0W | Draws 1 | Harrogate Town 1W.
What form are Walsall and Harrogate Town in?
Walsall (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Harrogate Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Walsall's attack at 1.08x the league average against Harrogate Town's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Harrogate Town's attack (0.81x) against Walsall's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 61/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Walsall Win
53%
1.90
27%
3.72
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Walsall xG
Total xG
2.23
0.78
Harrogate Town xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
5%
20.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Walsall and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Walsall and 0.78 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Walsall vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Walsall's recent record stands at 18W 17D 25L from 60 games, a 1.18 PPG return, with D-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Walsall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 29L across 60 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Walsall against 1.08 for Harrogate Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Walsall have managed 13W 7D 10L from 30 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 9W 5D 16L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Walsall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Walsall are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.25 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Walsall
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Walsall and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Walsall have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Walsall at home or Harrogate Town away?
Walsall's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Walsall at home: 1.53 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Harrogate Town won 3-0 on 18 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Walsall have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Harrogate Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Walsall
2
Draws
4
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Walsall and Harrogate Town?
From 10 meetings on record, Walsall have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Walsall and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Walsall 0-2 Harrogate Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Walsall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Walsall 53%, Harrogate Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Walsall) and 57% (Harrogate Town).
On the defensive side: Harrogate Town in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Walsall home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Walsall play Harrogate Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Walsall's recent matches and 40% of Harrogate Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Walsall vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Walsall's recent games and 57% of Harrogate Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Walsall and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Walsall have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Walsall cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Harrogate Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Walsall beat Harrogate Town 3-1 at Poundland Bescot Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Walsall 1.44 xG and Harrogate Town 0.78 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Walsall beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Walsall attack 1.08 / defence 0.92 against Harrogate Town attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Walsall 53% | Draw 27% | Harrogate Town 20%, with Walsall to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Walsall 42%, Harrogate Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Walsall's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Walsall 1.18 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Walsall win broke the near-deadlock. Walsall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.