Swindon Town 3-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fleetwood Town at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Swindon Town welcome Fleetwood Town to The Nigel Eady County Ground in League Two (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Swindon Town have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Swindon Town at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fleetwood Town — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Fleetwood Town have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Fleetwood Town are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Swindon Town in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Fleetwood Town in-play and half-time data (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 69% versus Fleetwood Town 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 68% | Fleetwood Town 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.37 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 0.967 / defence 1.250 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.165 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.242. Swindon Town's defence rating of 1.250 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Fleetwood Town's projected output up. Data: built from Swindon Town's last 64 games and Fleetwood Town's last 16.
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 29% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 47%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 3.49 | Draw 4.14 | Fleetwood Town 2.12. Fleetwood Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.81) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fleetwood Town at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fleetwood Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Swindon Town's last 10 home games and Fleetwood Town's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Swindon Town 60% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 19 | Venue: The Nigel Eady County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 29% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Swindon Town 1.37 / Fleetwood Town 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 0.967 / def 1.250 | Fleetwood Town attack 1.165 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.242 • Poisson stance: Fleetwood Town (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Fleetwood Town xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 7 December 2024 at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Swindon Town 3 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at The Nigel Eady County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 19) (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 29% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Fleetwood Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Swindon Town's attack at 0.97x the league average against Fleetwood Town's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Swindon Town's last 64 games and Fleetwood Town's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fleetwood Town Win
29%
3.49
24%
4.14
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
3.18
1.81
Fleetwood Town xG
3.49
29%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
5%
21.33
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.81 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town come into this having played 62 games, going 15W 18D 29L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.05 PPG from 62 outings (15W 20D 27L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swindon Town on 1.02 PPG, Fleetwood Town on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Swindon Town's home form reads 12W 6D 12L across their last 30 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 10D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.15 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
Swindon Town (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Swindon Town
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Blended
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 15W 18D 29L in their last 62 games (1.02 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 15W 20D 27L in their last 62 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.40 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 28 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Apr 2025, when Swindon Town won Fleetwood Town 0-4 Swindon Town.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Swindon Town
2
Draws
0
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Swindon Town have won 2, Fleetwood Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2026: Swindon Town 1-1 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town?
Swindon Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 63%, Fleetwood Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Swindon Town and 57% for Fleetwood Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Swindon Town vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Swindon Town's games and 60% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Swindon Town's matches and 57% of Fleetwood Town's.
Do Swindon Town and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Swindon Town's recent matches and 87% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Fleetwood Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town beat Fleetwood Town 3-1 at The Nigel Eady County Ground, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.37 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.81 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Swindon Town beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fleetwood Town landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.25 against Fleetwood Town attack 1.17 / defence 1.12, drawn from 64/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 29% | Draw 24% | Fleetwood Town 47%, with Fleetwood Town to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Swindon Town win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 68%, Fleetwood Town 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swindon Town 1.02 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swindon Town win broke the near-deadlock. Swindon Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.73 average — above their attacking norm. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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