Swindon Town 0-1 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swindon Town at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Swindon Town vs Crewe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The County Ground plays host to Swindon Town versus Crewe in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Swindon Town have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Swindon Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swindon Town's home record at The County Ground: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crewe (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crewe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crewe's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Swindon Town's favour (2.00 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Swindon Town half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Crewe half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 62% versus Crewe 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 57% | Crewe 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 1.70 xG and Crewe 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.135 / defence 0.922 | Crewe attack 0.639 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.185 / away 1.040. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Swindon Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Swindon Town games / 17 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 64% | Draw 24% | Crewe 13%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.56 | Draw 4.17 | Crewe 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (64%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates are neutral: Swindon Town 60% | Crewe 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Crewe | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: The County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 64% | Draw 24% | Crewe 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 38% | xG Swindon Town 1.70 / Crewe 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.135 / def 0.922 | Crewe attack 0.639 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.185 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Crewe xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Crewe kick off?
Swindon Town vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at The County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Swindon Town 0 - 1 Crewe.
Where is Swindon Town vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Crewe part of?
Swindon Town vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 64% chance of winning, Crewe a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Swindon Town and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Swindon Town and Crewe in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Crewe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Swindon Town's attack at 1.14x the league average against Crewe's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.64x) against Swindon Town's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.61.
These ratings are built from 64/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
64%
1.57
24%
4.21
13%
7.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
2.31
0.61
Crewe xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
7.86
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
2%
43.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Swindon Town and 0.61 for Crewe, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Crewe?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 63 outings, Swindon Town have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 30W 17D 16L record — W-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Swindon Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crewe's form line: 12W 15D 36L from 63 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Crewe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Swindon Town are the form team by 0.89 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crewe.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Swindon Town have posted 1.74 PPG from 31 outings (15W 9D 7L).
On the road, Crewe have gone 3W 7D 21L from 31 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Swindon Town are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.84 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Swindon Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Blended
Crewe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Crewe in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 30W 17D 16L in their last 63 games (1.70 PPG), while Crewe have gone 12W 15D 36L in their last 63 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Crewe away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.74 PPG; Crewe away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swindon Town won 0-3 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Swindon Town have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Crewe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Swindon Town
3
Draws
4
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Crewe?
From 8 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 1, Crewe have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Swindon Town 1-2 Crewe.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Crewe?
Crewe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Swindon Town see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 64%, Crewe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Swindon Town) and 45% (Crewe).
On the defensive side: Swindon Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Crewe in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Crewe?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Swindon Town's games and 48% of Crewe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swindon Town vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Swindon Town's recent games and 45% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Crewe tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Crewe in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Crewe defy the odds to beat Swindon Town 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crewe beat Swindon Town 0-1 at The County Ground, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 1.70 xG and Crewe 0.61 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Swindon Town fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Crewe attack 0.64 / defence 1.26, drawn from 64/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 64% | Draw 24% | Crewe 13%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Crewe win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 57%, Crewe 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Crewe's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.81. Form was overturned, with Crewe winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Swindon Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Crewe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.