Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Swindon Town at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swindon Town vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swindon Town host Accrington ST at County Ground in League Two, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Swindon Town — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Swindon Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at County Ground, Swindon Town have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Accrington ST stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Accrington ST have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Accrington ST away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swindon Town at 1.10 PPG versus Accrington ST's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Swindon Town have won 1, Accrington ST 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Accrington ST in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swindon Town 57% versus Accrington ST 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swindon Town 64% | Accrington ST 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swindon Town 2.20 xG and Accrington ST 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swindon Town attack 1.267 / defence 1.042 | Accrington ST attack 0.995 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.008. Swindon Town carry an above-average attack strength of 1.267 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Swindon Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Swindon Town games / 53 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swindon Town 62% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 15%. Fair-value odds: Swindon Town 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Accrington ST 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Swindon Town (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Swindon Town at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Swindon Town 100% | Accrington ST 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swindon Town vs Accrington ST | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: County Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swindon Town 62% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG Swindon Town 2.20 / Accrington ST 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Swindon Town attack 1.267 / def 1.042 | Accrington ST attack 0.995 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Swindon Town xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Accrington ST xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swindon Town vs Accrington ST kick off?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 September 2026 at County Ground.
What was the final score in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Swindon Town 1 - 1 Accrington ST.
Where is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at County Ground.
What competition is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST part of?
Swindon Town vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Swindon Town a 62% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Swindon Town and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Swindon Town vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?
Record (6 meetings): Swindon Town 1W | Draws 3 | Accrington ST 2W.
What form are Swindon Town and Accrington ST in?
Swindon Town (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Swindon Town's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Accrington ST's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, Accrington ST's attack versus Swindon Town's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.36
15%
6.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Swindon Town xG
Total xG
3.25
1.04
Accrington ST xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
6.60
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.59
2%
59.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Swindon Town and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Swindon Town and 1.04 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Swindon Town vs Accrington ST?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Swindon Town come into this having played 53 games, going 25W 10D 18L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Swindon Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Accrington ST sit at 1.11 PPG from 53 outings (15W 14D 24L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Accrington ST, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Swindon Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Swindon Town's home form reads 14W 6D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Accrington ST have taken 0.81 points per game from 26 outings (5W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Swindon Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Swindon Town are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.08 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 53 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swindon Town
Early Season
Accrington ST
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swindon Town and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Swindon Town have gone 25W 10D 18L in their last 53 games (1.60 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 15W 14D 24L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swindon Town at home or Accrington ST away?
Swindon Town's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swindon Town at home: 1.85 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. The two were last together as recently as 26 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2025, when Accrington ST won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swindon Town's record when hosting Accrington ST specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Swindon Town
4
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?
From 7 meetings on record, Swindon Town have won 1, Accrington ST have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Swindon Town and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 26 September 2026, when Swindon Town 1-1 Accrington ST.
Who has won more matches between Swindon Town and Accrington ST?
Accrington ST have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swindon Town 69%, Accrington ST 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Swindon Town) and 42% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swindon Town home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swindon Town play Accrington ST?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Swindon Town's games and 42% of Accrington ST's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Swindon Town vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Swindon Town's recent games and 42% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swindon Town and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Swindon Town have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Swindon Town and Accrington ST share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swindon Town and Accrington ST finished level at 1-1 at County Ground, Regular Season - 8, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swindon Town 2.20 xG and Accrington ST 1.04 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Swindon Town fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swindon Town attack 1.27 / defence 1.04 against Accrington ST attack 0.99 / defence 1.22, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swindon Town 62% | Draw 23% | Accrington ST 15%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swindon Town 64%, Accrington ST 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swindon Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Accrington ST's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.