Stockport County 1-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 38%, yet in-form Swindon Town provide a compelling counter-argument — this Stockport County vs Swindon Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 6 as Stockport County welcome Swindon Town to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Stockport County have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Swindon Town — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Swindon Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Swindon Town's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Swindon Town's 1.80 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Stockport County's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games.
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stockport County 80% and Swindon Town 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 80% | Swindon Town 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.35 xG and Swindon Town 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 0.917 / defence 1.213 | Swindon Town attack 1.115 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.974. Data: 5 Stockport County games / 51 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 38% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 36%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Swindon Town 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Swindon Town (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 80% | Swindon Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 38% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Stockport County 1.35 / Swindon Town 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 0.917 / def 1.213 | Swindon Town attack 1.115 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Swindon Town xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Swindon Town kick off?
Stockport County vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Stockport County 1 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Stockport County vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Swindon Town part of?
Stockport County vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 38% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stockport County and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Swindon Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Stockport County and Swindon Town in?
Stockport County (all comps): 1W-0D-4L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Swindon Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stockport County's attack at 0.92x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.85
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.67
1.32
Swindon Town xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.32 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, Stockport County have picked up 0.60 PPG on a 1W 0D 4L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Stockport County, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Swindon Town's form line: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Swindon Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Swindon Town are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stockport County.
Goals in Recent Form
Stockport County are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Swindon Town in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Early Season
Swindon Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Stockport County or Swindon Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Swindon Town in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Stockport County's record when hosting Swindon Town specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stockport County
2
Draws
0
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Swindon Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 2, Swindon Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Stockport County 0-0 Swindon Town.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Swindon Town?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 80%, Swindon Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Stockport County and 40% for Swindon Town. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Swindon Town in 40%; Swindon Town in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Swindon Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Stockport County's games and 40% of Swindon Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stockport County vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Stockport County's matches and 40% of Swindon Town's.
Do Stockport County and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County and Swindon Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County and Swindon Town finished level at 1-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.35 xG and Swindon Town 1.32 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 0.92 / defence 1.21 against Swindon Town attack 1.11 / defence 1.10, drawn from 5/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 38% | Draw 26% | Swindon Town 36%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 80%, Swindon Town 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.20 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Stockport County conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.