Stockport County 1-0 Newport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stockport County vs Newport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Newport County travel to Edgeley Park to take on Stockport County. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 5W 3D 2L at Edgeley Park — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Edgeley Park. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.
Newport County — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League Two this season, Newport County have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Newport County are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for Newport County and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Newport County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stockport County in-play tendencies (81 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Newport County in-play tendencies (81 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 49% versus Newport County 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 44% | Newport County 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.59 xG and Newport County 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.100 / defence 0.818 | Newport County attack 1.060 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.285. Data: 80 Stockport County games / 81 Newport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stockport County 48% | Draw 26% | Newport County 26%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Newport County 3.85. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stockport County as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Newport County (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Stockport County 40% | Newport County 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Newport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 48% | Draw 26% | Newport County 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Stockport County 1.59 / Newport County 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.100 / def 0.818 | Newport County attack 1.060 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Newport County xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stockport County vs Newport County kick off?
Stockport County vs Newport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Newport County?
Stockport County 1 - 0 Newport County.
Where is Stockport County vs Newport County being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Newport County part of?
Stockport County vs Newport County is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Newport County?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 48% chance of winning, Newport County a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Newport County?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Stockport County and Newport County will score (BTTS).
Will Stockport County vs Newport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Newport County?
Record (3 meetings): Stockport County 2W | Draws 0 | Newport County 1W.
What form are Stockport County and Newport County in?
Stockport County (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Newport County (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Newport County's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Newport County's attack versus Stockport County's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/81 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.84
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.71
1.11
Newport County xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
16%
6.37
5%
18.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Newport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Newport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.11 for Newport County, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Newport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 81 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 41W 23D 17L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Newport County's form line: 28W 22D 31L from 81 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Newport County.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 1.92 PPG from 40 outings (21W 14D 5L).
On the road, Newport County have gone 14W 9D 17L from 40 away games — 1.27 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stockport County are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Newport County are on 1.28 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 81 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Newport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stockport County and Newport County in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 41W 23D 17L in their last 81 games (1.80 PPG), while Newport County have gone 28W 22D 31L in their last 81 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Newport County away?
Stockport County's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 1.92 PPG; Newport County away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Newport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Newport County in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stockport County and Newport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Stockport County won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stockport County's record when hosting Newport County specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Stockport County
0
Draws
1
Newport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Newport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Stockport County have won 3, Newport County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Newport County last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2024, when Stockport County 1-0 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Newport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 42%, Newport County 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Stockport County) and 50% (Newport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Newport County in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Newport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stockport County play Newport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Stockport County's recent matches and 50% of Newport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stockport County vs Newport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Stockport County's recent games and 50% of Newport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Newport County tend to score early?
Stockport County have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Newport County in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Newport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Newport County 1-0 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 37, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.59 xG and Newport County 1.11 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Newport County landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against Newport County attack 1.06 / defence 1.01, drawn from 80/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 48% | Draw 26% | Newport County 26%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 44%, Newport County 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Newport County's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.