Stevenage 0-1 Tranmere – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Tranmere fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Tranmere travel to The Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at The Lamex Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Tranmere — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League Two this season, Tranmere have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Stevenage at 1.40 PPG versus Tranmere's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Tranmere and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Jul 2022, ended 2–1 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Tranmere in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 43% versus Tranmere 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 43% | Tranmere 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.91 xG and Tranmere 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.419 / defence 0.863 | Tranmere attack 0.817 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.064. Stevenage carry an above-average attack strength of 1.419 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 76 Stevenage games / 78 Tranmere games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 65% | Draw 21% | Tranmere 14%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Tranmere 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Stevenage (65%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Tranmere 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Tranmere | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 65% | Draw 21% | Tranmere 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 45% | xG Stevenage 1.91 / Tranmere 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.419 / def 0.863 | Tranmere attack 0.817 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.064 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Tranmere xG
45%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Tranmere kick off?
Stevenage vs Tranmere kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Tranmere?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Tranmere.
Where is Stevenage vs Tranmere being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Tranmere part of?
Stevenage vs Tranmere is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Tranmere?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 65% chance of winning, Tranmere a 14% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Tranmere?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Stevenage and Tranmere will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Tranmere have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Tranmere?
Record (3 meetings): Stevenage 2W | Draws 0 | Tranmere 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Tranmere in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Tranmere (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (1.42) and Tranmere's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tranmere's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 76/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.67
14%
7.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.66
0.75
Tranmere xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
7.22
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
15%
6.75
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
48.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Tranmere?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Tranmere expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.75 for Tranmere, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Tranmere?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Stevenage come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 23D 26L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Tranmere sit at 1.47 PPG from 76 outings (31W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.37 PPG, Tranmere on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Stevenage's home form reads 21W 7D 10L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.37 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Tranmere have taken 1.03 points per game from 38 outings (9W 12D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Tranmere's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Tranmere are on 1.11 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Tranmere in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Tranmere
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Tranmere in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 27W 23D 26L in their last 76 games (1.37 PPG), while Tranmere have gone 31W 19D 26L in their last 76 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Tranmere away?
Stevenage's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.84 PPG; Tranmere away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Tranmere been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Tranmere in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Tranmere runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stevenage's record when hosting Tranmere specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Stevenage
0
Draws
2
Tranmere
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Tranmere?
From 4 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 2, Tranmere have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Tranmere last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Stevenage 0-1 Tranmere.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Tranmere are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 40%, Tranmere 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Stevenage and 21% for Tranmere.
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Tranmere in 32%; Tranmere in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Tranmere away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Tranmere?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Stevenage's recent matches and 37% of Tranmere's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Tranmere usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stevenage's recent games and 21% of Tranmere's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Tranmere tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Tranmere in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tranmere defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tranmere beat Stevenage 0-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.91 xG and Tranmere 0.75 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.42 / defence 0.86 against Tranmere attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 76/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 65% | Draw 21% | Tranmere 14%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Tranmere win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 43%, Tranmere 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tranmere's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.37 PPG, Tranmere 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tranmere win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Tranmere (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.