Stevenage 0-1 Oldham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Oldham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Oldham at The Lamex Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Stevenage — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at The Lamex Stadium, Stevenage have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Stevenage are significantly better at The Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Oldham away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Oldham's 0.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Stevenage's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Stevenage have won 0, Oldham 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Oldham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Stevenage in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Oldham in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Oldham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 47% | Oldham 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.20 xG and Oldham 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.895 / defence 1.478 | Oldham attack 0.726 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.027 / away 1.099. Oldham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Stevenage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Stevenage games / 39 Oldham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 31% | Oldham 34%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Oldham 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Oldham (0.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 50% | Oldham 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Oldham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 35% | Draw 31% | Oldham 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Stevenage 1.20 / Oldham 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.895 / def 1.478 | Oldham attack 0.726 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.027 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Oldham xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Oldham kick off?
Stevenage vs Oldham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Oldham?
Stevenage 0 - 1 Oldham.
Where is Stevenage vs Oldham being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Oldham part of?
Stevenage vs Oldham is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Oldham?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 35% chance of winning, Oldham a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Oldham?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Stevenage and Oldham will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Oldham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Oldham?
Record (1 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Oldham 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Oldham in?
Stevenage (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Oldham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Stevenage's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Oldham's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Oldham's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.19
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.38
1.18
Oldham xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
10%
9.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Oldham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Oldham expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.18 for Oldham, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Oldham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Stevenage have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 7W 13D 18L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Oldham's form line: 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, 0.89 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 0.89 PPG, Oldham on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.26 PPG from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
On the road, Oldham have gone 3W 7D 9L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Stevenage are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Oldham are on 1.03 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 38 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Current Season
Oldham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Oldham in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 7W 13D 18L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Oldham have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Oldham away?
Stevenage's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.26 PPG; Oldham away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Stevenage and Oldham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Stevenage
0
Draws
2
Oldham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Oldham?
From 2 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Oldham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Oldham last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2022, when Stevenage 0-1 Oldham.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Oldham?
Oldham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Oldham see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 47%, Oldham 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Stevenage) and 47% (Oldham).
On the defensive side: Oldham in 32%; Stevenage have failed to score in 32% of games; Oldham in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Oldham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Oldham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Stevenage's recent matches and 42% of Oldham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Oldham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Stevenage's recent games and 47% of Oldham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Oldham tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Oldham in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Oldham defy the odds to beat Stevenage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Stevenage 0-1 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.20 xG and Oldham 1.18 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.90 / defence 1.48 against Oldham attack 0.73 / defence 1.30, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 35% | Draw 31% | Oldham 34%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 47%, Oldham 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Oldham's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 0.89 PPG, Oldham 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Oldham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.