Shrewsbury 3-1 Swindon Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swindon Town at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Swindon Town travel to The Croud Meadow to take on Shrewsbury. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shrewsbury stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 League Two matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Shrewsbury's home record at The Croud Meadow: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Croud Meadow. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at The Croud Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Swindon Town — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Swindon Town's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Swindon Town's 1.80 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Shrewsbury's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Shrewsbury, 1 for Swindon Town and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Swindon Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Swindon Town in-play tendencies (76 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 50% versus Swindon Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 46% | Swindon Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.86 xG and Swindon Town 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.754 / defence 1.004 | Swindon Town attack 1.057 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.194. Shrewsbury's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Shrewsbury games / 77 Swindon Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 25% | Draw 29% | Swindon Town 46%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Swindon Town 2.17. Swindon Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Swindon Town as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swindon Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shrewsbury 30% | Swindon Town 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 25% | Draw 29% | Swindon Town 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Shrewsbury 0.86 / Swindon Town 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.754 / def 1.004 | Swindon Town attack 1.057 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Swindon Town (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Swindon Town xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town?
Shrewsbury 3 - 1 Swindon Town.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town part of?
Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 25% chance of winning, Swindon Town a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Swindon Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shrewsbury and Swindon Town will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Swindon Town?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 0W | Draws 0 | Swindon Town 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Swindon Town in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Swindon Town (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 0.75x the league average against Swindon Town's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swindon Town's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swindon Town Win
25%
3.97
29%
3.46
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.13
1.27
Swindon Town xG
3.97
25%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
7%
14.10
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Swindon Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.27 for Swindon Town, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 14W 17D 45L from 76 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Swindon Town, meanwhile, have gone 33W 20D 23L across 76 games — 1.57 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Swindon Town by 0.79 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Shrewsbury heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 10W 8D 19L from 37 games — 1.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swindon Town's away record stands at 14W 9D 14L across 37 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Swindon Town are on 1.61 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 76 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Swindon Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Swindon Town in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 14W 17D 45L in their last 76 games (0.78 PPG), while Swindon Town have gone 33W 20D 23L in their last 76 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Swindon Town away?
Swindon Town's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.03 PPG; Swindon Town away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shrewsbury and Swindon Town runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
1
Swindon Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Swindon Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Swindon Town have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Swindon Town last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Shrewsbury 3-1 Swindon Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Swindon Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 40%, Swindon Town 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Shrewsbury) and 57% (Swindon Town).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Swindon Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Swindon Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 57% of Swindon Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Swindon Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 57% of Swindon Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Swindon Town tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Swindon Town in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Swindon Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Swindon Town 3-1 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 32, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.86 xG and Swindon Town 1.27 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shrewsbury beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.75 / defence 1.00 against Swindon Town attack 1.06 / defence 0.90, drawn from 30/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 25% | Draw 29% | Swindon Town 46%, with Swindon Town to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Shrewsbury win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 46%, Swindon Town 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Swindon Town's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Swindon Town arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.78. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Swindon Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.