Scunthorpe 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Stevenage at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Scunthorpe vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to Sands Stadium to face Scunthorpe in League Two, Regular Season - 43. The match kicks off on Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Scunthorpe have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Scunthorpe's home record at Sands Stadium: 1W 1D 8L from 10 League Two appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stevenage (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Stevenage have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stevenage are 0.60 PPG clear of Scunthorpe in recent League Two fixtures (0.80 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Scunthorpe lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Scunthorpe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Scunthorpe 44% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Scunthorpe 44% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Scunthorpe 0.71 xG and Stevenage 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Scunthorpe attack 0.563 / defence 1.660 | Stevenage attack 0.770 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 0.979 / away 1.093. Scunthorpe's attack strength of 0.563 is below the league average — the 0.71 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Scunthorpe's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Scunthorpe games / 41 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Scunthorpe 19% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 53%. Fair-value odds: Scunthorpe 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Stevenage 1.89. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Scunthorpe 30% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Scunthorpe vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Sands Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Scunthorpe 19% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Scunthorpe 0.71 / Stevenage 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Scunthorpe attack 0.563 / def 1.660 | Stevenage attack 0.770 / def 1.292 | league avg home 0.979 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Scunthorpe xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Stevenage xG
39%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Scunthorpe vs Stevenage kick off?
Scunthorpe vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Sands Stadium.
What was the final score in Scunthorpe vs Stevenage?
Scunthorpe 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Scunthorpe vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Sands Stadium.
What competition is Scunthorpe vs Stevenage part of?
Scunthorpe vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Scunthorpe vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Scunthorpe a 19% chance of winning, Stevenage a 53% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Scunthorpe vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Scunthorpe and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Scunthorpe vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Scunthorpe 0W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Scunthorpe and Stevenage in?
Scunthorpe (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Scunthorpe's attack at 0.56x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.77x) against Scunthorpe's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 42/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
19%
5.33
28%
3.55
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Scunthorpe xG
Total xG
2.11
1.40
Stevenage xG
5.33
19%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
5%
21.56
26%
3.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 16.9 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.1 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Scunthorpe vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Scunthorpe and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Scunthorpe and 1.40 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Scunthorpe vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Scunthorpe come into this having played 41 games, going 4W 12D 25L for 0.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 0.98 PPG from 41 outings (9W 13D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.59 PPG for Scunthorpe against 0.98 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Scunthorpe's home form reads 3W 5D 12L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (2W 7D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Scunthorpe are averaging 0.61 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.90 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 41 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Scunthorpe
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Scunthorpe and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Scunthorpe have gone 4W 12D 25L in their last 41 games (0.59 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 9W 13D 19L in their last 41 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Scunthorpe at home or Stevenage away?
Scunthorpe's home record (0.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Scunthorpe at home: 0.70 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Scunthorpe
2
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Scunthorpe and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Scunthorpe have won 0, Stevenage have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Scunthorpe and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2022, when Scunthorpe 1-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Scunthorpe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Scunthorpe 40%, Stevenage 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Scunthorpe) and 45% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Scunthorpe have failed to score in 50% of games; Stevenage in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Scunthorpe home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Scunthorpe play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Scunthorpe's recent matches and 35% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Scunthorpe vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Scunthorpe's recent games and 45% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Scunthorpe and Stevenage tend to score early?
Scunthorpe have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Scunthorpe and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sands Stadium, Regular Season - 43, as Scunthorpe and Stevenage drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Scunthorpe 0.71 xG and Stevenage 1.40 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Scunthorpe attack 0.56 / defence 1.66 against Stevenage attack 0.77 / defence 1.29, drawn from 42/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Scunthorpe 19% | Draw 28% | Stevenage 53%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Scunthorpe 44%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Scunthorpe's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Scunthorpe 0.59 PPG, Stevenage 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.