Salford City 1-0 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Stockport County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stockport County make the trip to The Peninsula Stadium to face Salford City in League Two, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Salford City's overall League Two record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Salford City at The Peninsula Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Stockport County (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 League Two outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D D W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Salford City against 2.00 for Stockport County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Salford City lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Salford City — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Stockport County — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 54% versus Stockport County 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 46% | Stockport County 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 0.89 xG and Stockport County 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.940 / defence 0.998 | Stockport County attack 1.164 / defence 0.776. League average goals — home 1.221 / away 1.091. Stockport County's defence strength of 0.776 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 92 Salford City games / 46 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 25% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 44%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Stockport County 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Salford City 50% | Stockport County 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 25% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Salford City 0.89 / Stockport County 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.940 / def 0.998 | Stockport County attack 1.164 / def 0.776 | league avg home 1.221 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Stockport County xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Stockport County kick off?
Salford City vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Stockport County?
Salford City 1 - 0 Stockport County.
Where is Salford City vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Stockport County part of?
Salford City vs Stockport County is a Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 25% chance of winning, Stockport County a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Salford City and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stockport County?
Record (2 meetings): Salford City 0W | Draws 1 | Stockport County 1W.
What form are Salford City and Stockport County in?
Salford City (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.94x the league average against Stockport County's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (1.16x) against Salford City's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 92/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
25%
4.01
31%
3.21
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.16
1.27
Stockport County xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.23
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 14.7 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Salford City and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Salford City and 1.27 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Salford City come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 9D 15L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.72 PPG from 46 outings (22W 13D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Salford City against 1.72 for Stockport County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Salford City's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (11W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Salford City are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.41 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 22W 9D 15L in their last 46 games (1.63 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 22W 13D 11L in their last 46 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.52 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Salford City or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Stockport County in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Salford City
3
Draws
2
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Stockport County have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2024, when Salford City 2-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Stockport County see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 44%, Stockport County 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Salford City) and 48% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Stockport County in 39%; Salford City have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Stockport County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Salford City's recent matches and 48% of Stockport County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Salford City's recent games and 48% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Stockport County tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Stockport County 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Stockport County 1-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Promotion Play-offs - Semi-finals, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 0.89 xG and Stockport County 1.27 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stockport County landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Stockport County attack 1.16 / defence 0.78, drawn from 92/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 25% | Draw 31% | Stockport County 44%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Salford City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 46%, Stockport County 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Stockport County's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.63 PPG, Stockport County 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Stockport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.