Salford City 0-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Port Vale at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 5 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Salford City's home record at The Peninsula Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League Two appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port Vale's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Salford City) versus 2.10 (Port Vale). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Salford City, 0 for Port Vale and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Salford City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Salford City in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 49% versus Port Vale 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Salford City 38% | Port Vale 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.40 xG and Port Vale 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.204 / defence 1.119 | Port Vale attack 1.020 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.002 / away 1.105. Data: 39 Salford City games / 39 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 33%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Port Vale 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 70% | Port Vale 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Port Vale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Salford City 1.40 / Port Vale 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.204 / def 1.119 | Port Vale attack 1.020 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.002 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Salford City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Port Vale xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Port Vale kick off?
Salford City vs Port Vale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 April 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Port Vale?
Salford City 0 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Salford City vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Port Vale part of?
Salford City vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 39% chance of winning, Port Vale a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Salford City and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Port Vale?
Record (1 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 0W.
What form are Salford City and Port Vale in?
Salford City (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Port Vale (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.20x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port Vale's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.53
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.66
1.26
Port Vale xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
11%
9.04
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Salford City and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Salford City and 1.26 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Salford City come into this having played 39 games, going 17W 11D 11L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.69 PPG from 39 outings (18W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.59 PPG, Port Vale on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Salford City's home form reads 9W 7D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.51 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Port Vale
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 17W 11D 11L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 18W 12D 9L in their last 39 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Port Vale away?
Salford City's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.79 PPG; Port Vale away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Salford City or Port Vale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Port Vale in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Port Vale go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Salford City's record when hosting Port Vale specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Salford City
0
Draws
3
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Port Vale?
From 4 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Port Vale have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Port Vale 2-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 53%, Port Vale 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Salford City) and 47% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Salford City's games and 74% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salford City vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Salford City's recent games and 47% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Port Vale tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Salford City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Salford City 0-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.40 xG and Port Vale 1.26 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Salford City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.20 / defence 1.12 against Port Vale attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 39% | Draw 28% | Port Vale 33%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Port Vale win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 38%, Port Vale 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Port Vale's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.59 PPG, Port Vale 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.