Salford City 3-1 Morecambe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Morecambe at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salford City face Morecambe.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Salford City welcome Morecambe to The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 39). Kick-off is Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Salford City have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Salford City have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Morecambe — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Morecambe's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salford City at 1.30 PPG versus Morecambe's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Salford City's last 10 home games and Morecambe's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Salford City have won 0, Morecambe 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Salford City 0–1 Morecambe — a Morecambe win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Morecambe trading profile (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 33 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 61% versus Morecambe 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 54% | Morecambe 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 2.35 xG and Morecambe 2.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.117 / defence 1.459 | Morecambe attack 1.284 / defence 1.498. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.291. Morecambe's defence rating of 1.498 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Salford City's projected output up. Morecambe have an above-average attack rating of 1.284, which lifts their away xG to 2.42. Salford City's defence rating of 1.459 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Morecambe's projected output up. Data: built from Salford City's last 84 games and Morecambe's last 37.
Result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 19% | Morecambe 42%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.55 | Draw 5.20 | Morecambe 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 19% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 86% | BTTS Yes probability 83% | Total xG 4.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 86% — a total xG of 4.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 83% — both xG figures (2.35 / 2.42) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Morecambe are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.77 combined xG gives a 86% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Salford City's last 10 home games and Morecambe's last 10 away games) averaging 4.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 83% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Salford City 70% (last 10 home games) | Morecambe 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Morecambe | Competition: League Two, matchday 39 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 19% | Morecambe 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 86% (Under 14%) | BTTS Yes 83% (No 17%) | xG Salford City 2.35 / Morecambe 2.42 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.117 / def 1.459 | Morecambe attack 1.284 / def 1.498 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Morecambe (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
2.42
Morecambe xG
83%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
70%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Morecambe FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Morecambe kick off?
Salford City vs Morecambe kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Morecambe?
Salford City 3 - 1 Morecambe.
Where is Salford City vs Morecambe being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Morecambe part of?
Salford City vs Morecambe is a League Two fixture (matchday 39) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Morecambe?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 39% chance of winning, Morecambe a 42% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Morecambe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Morecambe?
Our model estimates a 83% probability that both Salford City and Morecambe will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Salford City vs Morecambe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 86%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salford City's attack at 1.12x the league average against Morecambe's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Morecambe's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 2.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 84 games and Morecambe's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-2 carries the highest individual probability at 6.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (5.8%), 2-1 (5.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 18% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Morecambe Win
39%
2.55
19%
5.20
42%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
5.8%
Away win
2 – 1
5.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Salford City xG
Total xG
4.77
2.42
Morecambe xG
2.55
39%
Home win
5.20
19%
Draw
2.41
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
95%
Over 1.5
1.05
5%
Under 1.5
20.00
86%
Over 2.5
1.16
14%
Under 2.5
7.14
70%
Over 3.5
1.43
30%
Under 3.5
3.33
52%
Over 4.5
1.92
48%
Under 4.5
2.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
83%
BTTS Yes
1.21
17%
BTTS No
5.77
Clean Sheet
9%
11.23
9%
10.54
Win to Nil
3%
28.62
4%
25.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.7 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Morecambe Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Morecambe?
Our Poisson model rates 2-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 6.9%.
How many goals are Salford City and Morecambe expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Salford City and 2.42 for Morecambe, a combined total of 4.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Morecambe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 83 outings, Salford City have picked up 1.35 PPG on a 31W 19D 33L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Morecambe's form line: 25W 23D 35L from 83 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.35 PPG, Morecambe on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salford City have posted 1.24 PPG from their last 41 home games (13W 12D 16L).
On the road, Morecambe have gone 10W 8D 23L from their last 41 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Morecambe are on 1.24 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 83 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Morecambe
Current Season
Salford City (Home) vs Morecambe (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Current Season
Morecambe
Current Season
❓ Salford City vs Morecambe Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Morecambe in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 31W 19D 33L in their last 83 games (1.35 PPG), while Morecambe have gone 25W 23D 35L in their last 83 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Morecambe away?
Salford City's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.24 PPG; Morecambe away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 21 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Salford City have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Salford City's record when hosting Morecambe specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Salford City
0
Draws
1
Morecambe
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Morecambe H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Morecambe?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 3, Morecambe have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Morecambe last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 April 2025: Morecambe 1-3 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Morecambe?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 61%, Morecambe 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Salford City) and 68% (Morecambe). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salford City have failed to score in 27% of games; Morecambe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Morecambe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Morecambe Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Morecambe matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Salford City's games and 58% of Morecambe's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Salford City and Morecambe matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 51% of Salford City's matches and 68% of Morecambe's.
Do Salford City and Morecambe matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Salford City's recent matches and 83% of Morecambe's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Morecambe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Morecambe 3-1 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 2.35 xG and Morecambe 2.42 xG, a combined 4.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Morecambe landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.12 / defence 1.46 against Morecambe attack 1.28 / defence 1.50, drawn from 84/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 39% | Draw 19% | Morecambe 42%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 86%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 70% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 83% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 54%, Morecambe 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (83 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Morecambe's trading profile (83 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.35 PPG, Morecambe 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm. Morecambe (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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