Salford City 1-2 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Salford City at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Salford City face Grimsby.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Salford City welcome Grimsby to The Peninsula Stadium in League Two (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 12 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Salford City have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Salford City have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Grimsby stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Grimsby's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Salford City) versus 1.50 (Grimsby). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Salford City, 2 for Grimsby and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Dec 2023, ended Salford City 0–3 Grimsby — a Grimsby win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Grimsby trading profile (last 55 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Salford City 62% and Grimsby 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 58% | Grimsby 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.29 xG and Grimsby 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.849 / defence 1.000 | Grimsby attack 0.999 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.190. Data: built from Salford City's last 55 games and Grimsby's last 56.
Result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 34%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.57 | Draw 3.69 | Grimsby 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Salford City as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Salford City 60% (last 10 home games) | Grimsby 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, matchday 11 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 39% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Salford City 1.29 / Grimsby 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.849 / def 1.000 | Grimsby attack 0.999 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Salford City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Grimsby xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Salford City vs Grimsby FAQs
What time does Salford City vs Grimsby kick off?
Salford City vs Grimsby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 12 October 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Grimsby?
Salford City 1 - 2 Grimsby.
Where is Salford City vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Grimsby part of?
Salford City vs Grimsby is a League Two fixture (matchday 11) (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 39% chance of winning, Grimsby a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Salford City and Grimsby will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Salford City vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Salford City's attack at 0.85x the league average against Grimsby's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Salford City's last 55 games and Grimsby's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.69
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.48
1.19
Grimsby xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.44
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Salford City vs Grimsby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Salford City and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Salford City and 1.19 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Salford City have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 16W 15D 24L record — W-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Grimsby's form line: 16W 15D 24L from 55 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.15 PPG, Grimsby on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Salford City have posted 1.14 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 8D 12L).
On the road, Grimsby have gone 4W 11D 13L from their last 28 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.27 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Grimsby in 62%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Grimsby
Blended
Salford City (Home) vs Grimsby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Salford City
Blended
Grimsby
Blended
❓ Salford City vs Grimsby Form FAQs
What form are Salford City and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 games (1.15 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 16W 15D 24L in their last 55 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Grimsby away?
Salford City's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.14 PPG; Grimsby away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2022. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 15 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Dec 2022, when Salford City won Grimsby 1-4 Salford City.
Salford City's record when hosting Grimsby specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Salford City
2
Draws
5
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Salford City vs Grimsby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Grimsby?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Salford City have won 3, Grimsby have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Grimsby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2026: Salford City 2-2 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 71%, Grimsby 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Salford City) and 43% (Grimsby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Grimsby in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Salford City vs Grimsby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Salford City and Grimsby matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Salford City's games and 57% of Grimsby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Salford City and Grimsby matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Salford City's matches and 43% of Grimsby's.
Do Salford City and Grimsby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Salford City's recent matches and 79% of Grimsby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grimsby defy the odds to beat Salford City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Salford City 1-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.29 xG and Grimsby 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Grimsby outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Grimsby attack 1.00 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 39% | Draw 27% | Grimsby 34%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Grimsby win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 58%, Grimsby 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Grimsby's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.15 PPG, Grimsby 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Grimsby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League Two fixtures — matchday 11
All League Two fixtures →
More UK football predictions →