Rochdale 1-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rochdale at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rochdale vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rochdale host Crawley Town at Crown Oil Arena in League Two, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rochdale stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 League Two matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rochdale have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rochdale's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Crown Oil Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Rochdale are significantly better at Crown Oil Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in League Two this season, Crawley Town have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rochdale 0.60 PPG, Crawley Town 0.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Rochdale have won 0, Crawley Town 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Crawley Town winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Rochdale in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rochdale 47% versus Crawley Town 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rochdale 41% | Crawley Town 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rochdale 1.03 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rochdale attack 0.822 / defence 1.141 | Crawley Town attack 0.875 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.974. Data: 51 Rochdale games / 51 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rochdale 36% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 33%. Fair-value odds: Rochdale 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Crawley Town 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rochdale are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rochdale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates are neutral: Rochdale 40% | Crawley Town 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rochdale vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Crown Oil Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rochdale 36% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Rochdale 1.03 / Crawley Town 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Rochdale attack 0.822 / def 1.141 | Crawley Town attack 0.875 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.974 • Poisson stance: Rochdale (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Rochdale xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Crawley Town xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rochdale vs Crawley Town kick off?
Rochdale vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Crown Oil Arena.
What was the final score in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Rochdale 1 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Rochdale vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Crown Oil Arena.
What competition is Rochdale vs Crawley Town part of?
Rochdale vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Rochdale a 36% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rochdale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Rochdale and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Rochdale vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Rochdale 0W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 2W.
What form are Rochdale and Crawley Town in?
Rochdale (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Rochdale's attack rating (0.82) and Crawley Town's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Rochdale's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rochdale Win
36%
2.76
31%
3.25
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Rochdale xG
Total xG
2.01
0.97
Crawley Town xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Rochdale and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Rochdale and 0.97 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Rochdale vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rochdale come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 17D 22L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Rochdale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.22 PPG from 51 outings (17W 11D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rochdale on 1.04 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rochdale's home form reads 7W 11D 7L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.16 points per game from 25 outings (8W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Rochdale are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.14 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 51 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rochdale
Early Season
Crawley Town
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rochdale and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Rochdale have gone 12W 17D 22L in their last 51 games (1.04 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rochdale at home or Crawley Town away?
Rochdale's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rochdale at home: 1.28 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rochdale's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Rochdale
1
Draws
3
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Rochdale have won 0, Crawley Town have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rochdale and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 March 2023, when Crawley Town 2-0 Rochdale.
Who has won more matches between Rochdale and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rochdale see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rochdale 48%, Crawley Town 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Rochdale) and 52% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Rochdale keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Rochdale have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rochdale home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rochdale play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Rochdale's recent matches and 60% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rochdale vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Rochdale's recent games and 52% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rochdale and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Rochdale have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rochdale and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rochdale and Crawley Town finished level at 1-1 at Crown Oil Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rochdale 1.03 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rochdale attack 0.82 / defence 1.14 against Crawley Town attack 0.88 / defence 0.94, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rochdale 36% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 33%, with Rochdale to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rochdale 41%, Crawley Town 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rochdale's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Crawley Town's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rochdale 1.04 PPG, Crawley Town 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.