Port Vale 2-0 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port Vale vs Hartlepool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port Vale host Hartlepool at Vale Park in League Two, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port Vale — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port Vale have posted 4W 3D 2L at Vale Park — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hartlepool stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hartlepool have gone 1W 1D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.44 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.44 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Port Vale carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Port Vale trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hartlepool trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 56% versus Hartlepool 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 44% | Hartlepool 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.93 xG and Hartlepool 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.122 / defence 1.040 | Hartlepool attack 0.652 / defence 1.610. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.199. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.610 — this is suppressing Port Vale's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Port Vale games / 18 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 62% | Draw 26% | Hartlepool 13%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Hartlepool 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Port Vale (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 44% | Hartlepool 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 62% | Draw 26% | Hartlepool 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 50% | xG Port Vale 1.93 / Hartlepool 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.122 / def 1.040 | Hartlepool attack 0.652 / def 1.610 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Hartlepool xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Hartlepool kick off?
Port Vale vs Hartlepool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Hartlepool?
Port Vale 2 - 0 Hartlepool.
Where is Port Vale vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Hartlepool part of?
Port Vale vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 62% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 13% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Port Vale and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Hartlepool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Hartlepool in?
Port Vale (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Hartlepool (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port Vale's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Hartlepool's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Hartlepool's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
62%
1.63
26%
3.91
13%
7.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.74
0.81
Hartlepool xG
1.63
62%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
7.76
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
53.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.81 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Hartlepool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port Vale's recent record stands at 8W 5D 5L from 18 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hartlepool, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 9L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.61 PPG, Hartlepool on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hartlepool's away record stands at 1W 1D 7L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hartlepool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port Vale are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.11 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 18 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Hartlepool away?
Port Vale's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.67 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.44 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Hartlepool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hartlepool in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Port Vale
0
Draws
0
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Hartlepool?
From 2 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Hartlepool have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Hartlepool 0-1 Port Vale.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Hartlepool?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 44%, Hartlepool 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Port Vale) and 44% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 33% of games; Hartlepool in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Port Vale's recent matches and 33% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Port Vale's recent games and 44% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port Vale cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hartlepool.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Hartlepool 2-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.93 xG and Hartlepool 0.81 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Hartlepool landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.12 / defence 1.04 against Hartlepool attack 0.65 / defence 1.61, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 62% | Draw 26% | Hartlepool 13%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 44%, Hartlepool 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hartlepool's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.61 PPG, Hartlepool 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.