Oldham 3-0 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Notts County at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oldham vs Notts County fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 26 as Oldham welcome Notts County to Boundary Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 24 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Boundary Park, Oldham have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Notts County — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Notts County have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Oldham) versus 1.90 (Notts County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Oldham, 1 for Notts County and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with Notts County winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Oldham in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Notts County in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 38% versus Notts County 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 40% | Notts County 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 0.96 xG and Notts County 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.936 / defence 0.821 | Notts County attack 1.199 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.196. Data: 37 Oldham games / 84 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 30% | Draw 29% | Notts County 41%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Notts County 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 40% | Notts County 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 30% | Draw 29% | Notts County 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Oldham 0.96 / Notts County 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.936 / def 0.821 | Notts County attack 1.199 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Notts County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Notts County xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Notts County kick off?
Oldham vs Notts County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 March 2026 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Notts County?
Oldham 3 - 0 Notts County.
Where is Oldham vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Notts County part of?
Oldham vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 30% chance of winning, Notts County a 41% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Oldham and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Notts County?
Record (1 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 0 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Oldham and Notts County in?
Oldham (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Notts County (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oldham's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Notts County's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. The same calculation in reverse, Notts County's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/84 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
30%
3.37
29%
3.40
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.13
1.18
Notts County xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
16%
6.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.9 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Oldham and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Oldham and 1.18 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 37 outings, Oldham have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 15W 13D 9L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Notts County's form line: 21W 6D 10L from 37 games, 1.86 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Oldham on 1.57 PPG, Notts County on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oldham have posted 1.76 PPG from 17 outings (8W 6D 3L).
On the road, Notts County have gone 9W 3D 5L from 17 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Oldham are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.73 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Notts County in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 15W 13D 9L in their last 37 games (1.57 PPG), while Notts County have gone 21W 6D 10L in their last 37 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Notts County away?
Oldham's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 1.76 PPG; Notts County away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Oldham or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oldham have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Notts County in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oldham
0
Draws
1
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Notts County?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 1, Notts County have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 24 March 2026, when Oldham 3-0 Notts County.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oldham see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Notts County see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 35%, Notts County 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Oldham) and 53% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Oldham keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Oldham have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Oldham's recent matches and 59% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oldham vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Oldham's recent games and 53% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Oldham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Notts County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oldham beat Notts County 3-0 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 0.96 xG and Notts County 1.18 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Oldham beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Notts County landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.94 / defence 0.82 against Notts County attack 1.20 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/84 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 30% | Draw 29% | Notts County 41%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Oldham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 40%, Notts County 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Notts County's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Oldham 1.57 PPG, Notts County 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Oldham win broke the near-deadlock. Oldham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.