Oldham 1-2 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oldham vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 39 as Oldham welcome Mansfield Town to Boundary Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 26 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Oldham have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Oldham at Boundary Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Mansfield Town away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Mansfield Town's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Oldham's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Oldham have won 0, Mansfield Town 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Oldham in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oldham 49% versus Mansfield Town 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oldham 57% | Mansfield Town 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oldham 1.08 xG and Mansfield Town 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oldham attack 0.931 / defence 1.553 | Mansfield Town attack 0.890 / defence 1.137. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.132. Data: 37 Oldham games / 35 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oldham 24% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 47%. Fair-value odds: Oldham 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Mansfield Town 2.13. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oldham 60% | Mansfield Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oldham vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Boundary Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oldham 24% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Oldham 1.08 / Mansfield Town 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Oldham attack 0.931 / def 1.553 | Mansfield Town attack 0.890 / def 1.137 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Oldham xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Mansfield Town xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oldham vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Oldham vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at Boundary Park.
What was the final score in Oldham vs Mansfield Town?
Oldham 1 - 2 Mansfield Town.
Where is Oldham vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Boundary Park.
What competition is Oldham vs Mansfield Town part of?
Oldham vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Oldham vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Oldham a 24% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oldham vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Oldham and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Oldham vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Mansfield Town?
Record (1 meetings): Oldham 0W | Draws 1 | Mansfield Town 0W.
What form are Oldham and Mansfield Town in?
Oldham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Oldham's attack at 0.93x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Oldham's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.44
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Oldham xG
Total xG
2.64
1.56
Mansfield Town xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
5%
19.75
16%
6.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oldham vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Oldham and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Oldham and 1.56 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Oldham vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Oldham come into this having played 35 games, going 7W 10D 18L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.69 PPG from 35 outings (17W 8D 10L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Mansfield Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Oldham — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Oldham's home form reads 4W 3D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (5W 5D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mansfield Town's season.
The Goals Picture
Oldham are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.37 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 60%.
Last 35 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oldham
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oldham and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Oldham have gone 7W 10D 18L in their last 35 games (0.89 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 17W 8D 10L in their last 35 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oldham at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oldham at home: 0.88 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Oldham and Mansfield Town runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oldham
1
Draws
1
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oldham and Mansfield Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Oldham have won 0, Mansfield Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oldham and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 26 March 2022, when Oldham 1-2 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Oldham and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Oldham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mansfield Town see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oldham 59%, Mansfield Town 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Oldham) and 41% (Mansfield Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Oldham have failed to score in 29% of games; Mansfield Town in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oldham home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oldham play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Oldham's games and 53% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oldham vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Oldham's matches and 41% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Oldham and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Oldham have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Oldham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Oldham 1-2 at Boundary Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oldham 1.08 xG and Mansfield Town 1.56 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oldham attack 0.93 / defence 1.55 against Mansfield Town attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oldham 24% | Draw 29% | Mansfield Town 47%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oldham 57%, Mansfield Town 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oldham's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.