Notts County 0-1 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Grimsby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 35 as Notts County welcome Grimsby to Meadow Lane. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Notts County — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Notts County at Meadow Lane this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Grimsby have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Grimsby away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Notts County at 2.20 PPG versus Grimsby's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Notts County hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for Grimsby, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 4.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–0 with Notts County winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Notts County and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Notts County in-play and half-time data (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Grimsby in-play and half-time data (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 51% versus Grimsby 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 46% | Grimsby 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.56 xG and Grimsby 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.299 / defence 0.749 | Grimsby attack 0.943 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Notts County carry an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Notts County's defence rating of 0.749 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 79 Notts County games / 78 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Notts County 54% | Draw 26% | Grimsby 20%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Grimsby 5.00. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Notts County are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Notts County 50% | Grimsby 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 54% | Draw 26% | Grimsby 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Notts County 1.56 / Grimsby 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.299 / def 0.749 | Grimsby attack 0.943 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Notts County (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Grimsby xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Notts County vs Grimsby kick off?
Notts County vs Grimsby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Grimsby?
Notts County 0 - 1 Grimsby.
Where is Notts County vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Grimsby part of?
Notts County vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 54% chance of winning, Grimsby a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Notts County and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will Notts County vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Grimsby?
Record (5 meetings): Notts County 4W | Draws 1 | Grimsby 0W.
What form are Notts County and Grimsby in?
Notts County (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Grimsby (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.30x the league average against Grimsby's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 79/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.92
20%
4.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.40
0.84
Grimsby xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.95
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
4%
23.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Notts County and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Notts County and 0.84 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Notts County's recent record stands at 37W 17D 24L from 78 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Grimsby, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 27L across 78 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Notts County on 1.64 PPG, Grimsby on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Notts County have managed 20W 7D 12L from 39 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Grimsby's away record stands at 16W 11D 12L across 39 trips, a 1.51 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Notts County are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.36 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Current Season
Grimsby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Notts County and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 37W 17D 24L in their last 78 games (1.64 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 33W 18D 27L in their last 78 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Grimsby away?
Notts County's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.72 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Notts County or Grimsby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Notts County have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Grimsby in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Notts County and Grimsby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2024, when Notts County won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Notts County's record when hosting Grimsby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Notts County
1
Draws
1
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Grimsby?
From 6 meetings on record, Notts County have won 4, Grimsby have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Notts County 0-1 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Grimsby?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 46%, Grimsby 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Notts County) and 54% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Grimsby in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Notts County play Grimsby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Notts County's recent matches and 54% of Grimsby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Notts County vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Notts County's recent games and 54% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Notts County and Grimsby tend to score early?
Notts County have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Grimsby defy the odds to beat Notts County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Notts County 0-1 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.56 xG and Grimsby 0.84 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Notts County fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.30 / defence 0.75 against Grimsby attack 0.94 / defence 0.96, drawn from 79/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 54% | Draw 26% | Grimsby 20%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Grimsby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 46%, Grimsby 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Grimsby's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Notts County 1.64 PPG, Grimsby 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grimsby win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.49 scoring average — below par going forward. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.