Notts County 1-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Notts County at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Notts County welcome Carlisle to Meadow Lane in League Two (matchday 29). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Notts County have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Notts County at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Carlisle — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Carlisle away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Notts County carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Notts County have won 1, Carlisle 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2024, ended Notts County 2–0 Carlisle — a Notts County win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Notts County trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Carlisle trading profile (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 61% versus Carlisle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 62% | Carlisle 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 1.52 xG and Carlisle 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.034 / defence 0.792 | Carlisle attack 0.845 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.151. Notts County have a tight defence (rating 0.792), which is pulling Carlisle's projected output down. Data: built from Notts County's last 72 games and Carlisle's last 26.
Result probabilities: Notts County 54% | Draw 28% | Carlisle 18%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.84 | Draw 3.60 | Carlisle 5.57. Notts County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Notts County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Notts County's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Notts County 20% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Notts County vs Carlisle | Competition: League Two, matchday 29 | Venue: Meadow Lane • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 January 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Notts County 54% | Draw 28% | Carlisle 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Notts County 1.52 / Carlisle 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Notts County attack 1.034 / def 0.792 | Carlisle attack 0.845 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Notts County (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Notts County xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Carlisle xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Notts County vs Carlisle FAQs
What time does Notts County vs Carlisle kick off?
Notts County vs Carlisle kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 January 2025 at Meadow Lane.
What was the final score in Notts County vs Carlisle?
Notts County 1 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Notts County vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Meadow Lane.
What competition is Notts County vs Carlisle part of?
Notts County vs Carlisle is a League Two fixture (matchday 29) (England).
Who is favourite to win Notts County vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Notts County a 54% chance of winning, Carlisle a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Notts County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Notts County vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Notts County and Carlisle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Notts County vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Notts County's attack at 1.03x the league average against Carlisle's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Notts County's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Notts County's last 72 games and Carlisle's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 2-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Notts County Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.60
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Notts County xG
Total xG
2.29
0.77
Carlisle xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
4%
25.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Notts County vs Carlisle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Notts County vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Notts County and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Notts County and 0.77 for Carlisle, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Notts County vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Notts County come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 15D 27L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Carlisle sit at 0.71 PPG from 72 outings (12W 15D 45L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Notts County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Carlisle — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Notts County's home form reads 18W 5D 12L across their last 35 home games, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Carlisle have taken 0.77 points per game from their last 35 away games (7W 6D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Notts County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Notts County are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 0.86 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Notts County have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Notts County
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
Notts County (Home) vs Carlisle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Notts County
Blended
Carlisle
Blended
❓ Notts County vs Carlisle Form FAQs
What form are Notts County and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Notts County have gone 30W 15D 27L in their last 72 games (1.46 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 12W 15D 45L in their last 72 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Notts County at home or Carlisle away?
Notts County's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Notts County at home: 1.69 PPG; Carlisle away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2024. All of them came in League Two. The most recent in our data was on 28 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Notts County
0
Draws
0
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Notts County vs Carlisle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Notts County and Carlisle?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Notts County have won 2, Carlisle have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Notts County and Carlisle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 January 2025: Notts County 1-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Notts County and Carlisle?
Notts County have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Notts County 57%, Carlisle 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Notts County) and 49% (Carlisle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Notts County keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Carlisle in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Notts County home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Notts County vs Carlisle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Notts County and Carlisle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Notts County's recent matches and 49% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Notts County and Carlisle matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Notts County's matches and 49% of Carlisle's.
Do Notts County and Carlisle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Notts County's recent matches and 77% of Carlisle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Notts County edge out Carlisle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Notts County beat Carlisle 1-0 at Meadow Lane, Regular Season - 29, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Notts County 1.52 xG and Carlisle 0.77 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Notts County attack 1.03 / defence 0.79 against Carlisle attack 0.84 / defence 1.13, drawn from 72/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Notts County 54% | Draw 28% | Carlisle 18%, with Notts County to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Notts County 62%, Carlisle 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Notts County's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Carlisle's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Notts County arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Notts County (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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