Newport County 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newport County at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Gillingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Newport County and Gillingham meet at Rodney Parade in League Two, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Newport County have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Newport County at Rodney Parade this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gillingham away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Newport County, 1.60 for Gillingham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Across 3 previous meetings, Newport County are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with Newport County winning.
The historical record gives Newport County a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Newport County — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Gillingham — key trading statistics (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 57% versus Gillingham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 51% | Gillingham 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.30 xG and Gillingham 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.991 / defence 1.043 | Gillingham attack 0.876 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.356. Data: 77 Newport County games / 77 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 38% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 35%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Gillingham 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 80% | Gillingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 38% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Newport County 1.30 / Gillingham 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 0.991 / def 1.043 | Gillingham attack 0.876 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Newport County (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gillingham xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Gillingham kick off?
Newport County vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 February 2024 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Gillingham?
Newport County 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Newport County vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Gillingham part of?
Newport County vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 38% chance of winning, Gillingham a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Newport County and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Gillingham?
Record (3 meetings): Newport County 3W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 0W.
What form are Newport County and Gillingham in?
Newport County (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Gillingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Newport County's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.88x) against Newport County's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 77/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
38%
2.66
28%
3.60
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.54
1.24
Gillingham xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
11%
9.19
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Newport County and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Newport County and 1.24 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Newport County's recent record stands at 26W 22D 29L from 77 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Gillingham, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 31L across 77 games — 1.32 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Newport County against 1.32 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 13W 13D 12L from 38 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gillingham's away record stands at 10W 9D 19L across 38 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newport County are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.87 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Gillingham in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 77 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 26W 22D 29L in their last 77 games (1.30 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 28W 18D 31L in their last 77 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Gillingham away?
Newport County's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.37 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Newport County or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newport County have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Gillingham in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Gillingham have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Newport County
0
Draws
2
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Newport County have won 6, Gillingham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Gillingham 3-2 Newport County.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Gillingham?
Newport County have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 66%, Gillingham 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Newport County) and 32% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 34%; Gillingham in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Newport County's recent matches and 34% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newport County vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Newport County's recent games and 32% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Gillingham tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Newport County edge out Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newport County beat Gillingham 1-0 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 34, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.30 xG and Gillingham 1.24 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against Gillingham attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 38% | Draw 28% | Gillingham 35%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 51%, Gillingham 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 1.30 PPG, Gillingham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newport County win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.